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Microsoft Nosediving

They’re not quite zero-day figures but I’ve got some intriguing statistics for you in case you’re in the mood, courtesy of comScore. I’ll let the numbers do most of the talking, though not all of it.

Microsoft’s mobile market share in the States as of the end of January 2010 fell 4% from its 2009 August through October average. Google, in stark contrast, jumped up 4.3%.

My prediction you ask? This trend will continue, Google will overtake Microsoft before WP7’s release giving it a stronger foothold against WP7 once it’s released, Palm will sadly dwindle further and Microsoft will give itself a dead cat bounce with WP7 but never quite touch anyone already above them. Palm yes, everyone else, no. Symbian? Haven’t thought about that, got nothing for you. I look forward to none of you being able to use this to sting me with my own cocksure words: Possibly within the year, and if not, not too long into the next, as sure as you were born, Google will be closer to Apple than Microsoft will be to Google.

One lifeline I see of Microsoft’s is getting taken seriously by businesses and cutting into RIM. At the same time however they appear to be dressing up their new phones up as toys more aggressively than even Apple and that will hurt their penetration into companies with a BES in back — meanwhile Google will entice more migration within that crowd into Google Apps, ultimately helping their phones cut into both RIM and Microsoft, and not just their mobile operations.

Top Smartphone Platforms
3 Month Avg Ending Jan ’10 vs 3 Month Avg. Ending Oct ’09
Total U.S. Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
Smartphone Platform Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
Oct-09 Jan-10 Point Change
RIM 41.3% 43.0% 1.7
Apple 24.8% 25.1% 0.3
Microsoft 19.7% 15.7% -4.0
Google 2.8% 7.1% 4.3
Palm 7.8% 5.7% -2.1

Doug Simmons