MobilityLeaks: Apple Will Fail (lol)
On 9/16/2011 12:23 PM, Doug Simmons wrote:
Holy shit RIM opened almost 25% down — on good earnings too. How much more blood can you pour into a bath?
Ramon:
Apple next
Simmons:
Please write a short article so we’ve got that statement on the record.
Like how I put a statement on the record in April 2010 that everyone should bet against RIM, except in your case, fucking incorrect and ridiculous.
Ramon:
iRight
Sent from my mango Windows Phone
Chris:
LMAO @ Ramon. Your fanboyism knows no bounds.
The world’s most valuable company is next? Okie Dokie..
Ramon:
The worlds most valuable company resigned a few weeks ago. Or did you miss that?
By the way…how is that os x lion treating you?
Chris:
Ramon:
http://wolframalpha.com/input/?i=aapl+xom
http://wolframalpha.com/input/?i=aapl+msft
http://wolframalpha.com/input/?i=aapl+rimm
Ramon:
watch it all slowly decline.
Sent from my mango Windows Phone
Ramon:
Apple is a one man vision….how will they innovate with out that one man? What happens when iPad runs its course and its time for the next best thing? Oh…guess you didn’t think that far. Painting shit white doesn’t work for long.
Ballmer’s balls in my mouth isn’t that bad…jobs dick up your ass….now that’s a doozy….
Sent from my mango Windows Phone
Ramon:
Dig deeper….you will find your answer. The moment jobs let go his death grip things started going wrong.
apple was never a company. They will be milking what jobs have them for years to come. It will show over time. Keep an eye as things degrade little by little. Issues scaling…issues meeting demand…quality issues….managment issues…on and on the list will go.
Apple = Steve jobs. No jobs….no iChance
Chris:
You’re just talking nonsense now. Thank you gmail mute.
Ramon:
Oh yea? As the hundreds of people with MacBook pro and air issues. Ask the long time users of final cut. Ask the mac users now on the hunt for virus protection software. Ask the apple pundits who have miss predictions for new iPhone and iPad time and time again. Ask the people who had to re learn the way they hold a phone just to keep a call.
Im just telling you these issues will not get better.
Simmons:
Ramon I’m debating whether or not you’re trolling us, and given how outlandish the statements are, and by outlandish I mean fucking stupid (and inflammatory), I think now is an appropriate time to just clear up for the record whether you actually believe this shit you’re saying or if you’re just fucking around.
Please tell me you’re just fucking around.
Ramon:
Lmao this is the beginning of the beginning of the end for apples lead and market share. They better hope jobs has a son who likes white coated shit….or its back to the bargain bin they go.
Simmons:
So you think phone skin consumer racism is just going to go away because a man retires?
Ramon:
No, I think when it’s all said and done…phone skin racism will be accepted and be the norm. The genius behind the idea will no longer be there to pioneer another idea like it. And so….the fruit goes bad….
Simmons:
Hey Ramon, let me know if you need help writing your after-the-fact confession of questionable fucking assessment of things speech just in case, you know, it turns out that that’s how this plays out, Apple not imploding.
Doug Smith:
Ramon, you have absolutely nothing to base Apple’s decline on except the resignation of Steve Jobs, way to fast to make that claim. Even the financial guys have gotten over it and Apple stock is fine. Apple has at least another year of get out of jail free cards before anyone will have even a scrap of evidence to make the claim you did. Your sole basis of blasting Apple is on the promise of decent Windows Tablet is weak at best. Did it ever occur to you that the market may in fact support two different platforms thrive with them both?
Jeremy:
What is worse??
Listening to a whiny women scream for days on end OR Ramon being right? 🙂
I will pick number 1.
Ramon:
the only one that can defeat apple at this point…is apple. And they have shown signs of doing so. IOS launch pad in lion? My point stands strong.
Sent from my mango Windows Phone
Chris:
Your argument is that because they included LaunchPad in Lion (A feature I actually like – but I’m 100% new to mac), they will fail as a whole?
Wow..
Ramon:
I base everything on Steve jobs. Apples stock was shitty when he came. And it was awesome when he was. What happens when hr is not? You guys really think apple as a company has the longevity to make it to the next technology revolution? They do not….apple as a company didn’t even have the vision to make it where they are…one man did….jobs.
IPad…tablet…phone…comes and goes. They will become standards. And everyone will get it right. Who will lead next time around? Not apple. Up to this day their cloud computing strategy looks to be a joke. Google holds the ace and Microsoft shows they are still in the game. Apple?….not so much.
After the cloud? Then what? Apple does not have what it takes. Their lead will go away and they will return to their 2% days.
Schneider:
You can’t have a multi-billion dollar company just because of one man period, if they fail within 5 years I’ll run down Times Square naked.
Chris:
not just a multi billion dollar company.
THE MOST VALUABLE multibillion dollar company in the world.
Ramon:
Fail is relative though. For apple…not being in the lead is failing. So yes…they will fail.
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About The Author
Doug Simmons
Biographical info.. hmm. I have a history of not being able to strike the balance between what is "safe" to put into these forms and what is, in my mind at least, funny. Can't do it.
I don’t see Apple out of the top 2 in 5 years they’ve got too big a grip on the market right now, and not because of one man.
I’d like to personaly thank Ramon for what hopefully was an excellent trolling performance and not his actual opinions and for, potentially, making me look briefly reasonable.
Lets be clear about something. Apple is the most valuable because they have the highest frickin’ markup in the consumer tech industry. Lets not talk like they are moving more actual units than other companies, say Samsung, for example in every category. Apple will for the forseeable future be one of the most profitable and valuable companies in the world.
I believe what Ramon is getting at is what is the next innovative, market changing product Apple has in the pipeline that will drive the company and its value going forward from when tablets are mature and saturating the market? We see Microsoft placing a big bet on user interfaces and truly are leading the way in changing how people interact with devices, Google leads the way in driving adoption of services but what is it that Apple aiming for?
Apple will always have a place in the market because they are the luxury brand. Even at 2% of the market they’ll be ridiculously profitable. Apple leads right now only in the tablet market, thats it! What happens if in 2 years there are more Windows based tablets being sold than iPads like 5 to 1? Yes Apple will still be having record breaking earnings but they won’t truly be leading.
Then again the iPhone is coming to all carriers so who isn’t to say that the next couple years you see all the Android buyers switching to iPhone? Should be interesting.
Murani, first of all, I’m not so sure I buy your explanation that if a company wants to be a dick and charge a lot for their stuff relative to whatever the right price for such a thing is that they’ll be successful.
But for the sake of argument let’s grant that yet again, in hypothetical instances, you hit nails on their heads. Okay.
But the thing is Murani, the value of the company is tied to the demand to own it. If you’re willing to use the great price to earnings ratio, the demand to own Apple is over 50% greater to own Microsoft, an example of what investors expect out of Apple down the line. Microsoft’s figure (around ten versus Apple’s 15) is kind of between ehh and okay, a little low considering they pay a good dividend, whereas RIM, which makes a lot of money, has no investor confidence or optimism with a figure in the 3s today, the lowest I’ve ever seen.
Tl;dr Apple’s value is made up of many more things than their “price points” okay cupcake? If investors were as enthusiastic and optimistic about Microsoft as they are about Apple, Microsoft .. let’s see… can someone help me with the math on this? They’re at $220B, add like 52% to that, which we’ll call 50%, which sounds like $110B, add that to $220B, puts us up to $330B which is not too far from the point at which Apple overtook Exxon. So by your theory, maybe Microsoft should charge Android-friendly OEMs more for their licenses to make the company sexier to Wall Street.
If you’re not trying to highlight Ramon’s absurdity, good work.
Murani, before we split all these hairs can we see if we can agree on Ramon’s contention that Apple will fail, joining the ranks of Palm which failed, that Brookstone chain which I think failed, you know, the Sharper Image knockoff (didn’t they fail too?) with those massaging chairs, also asbestos products and RIM which haven’t failed but at least have seen better days?
Ramon said and has been saying for some time that Apple will fail.
And whether or not you think that sounds about right or is fucking absurd or Ramon trolling our asses, which he may very well be, would you agree that were it to fail it would be a direct result of Steve Jobs’ departure?
As to your question about what happens if in two years Microsoft-based tablets outsell iPads five to one, well, … I don’t know — have you been watching too many Twilight Zone episodes?
As much as I may think that Ramon’s flying off the handle a little bit, there are a number of extremely successful companies that are, on a surface level, multi- billion dollar companies because of one man. If you dont believe me, I believe Warren Buffet would like a word with you.
Speaking of Warren Buffet, I think he said it best on Larry King one night, I believe in 2009 when the markets, confidence and credit began to stabilize. When asked about how he makes his investment decisions, which he did continue to do throughout the crisis, and he said what I thought was moving and insightful and should give us all pause:
It takes no more time to see the good side of life than it takes to see the bad.
By stocks he meant securities and bonds obviously.
Think on that.
LMAO! fuckers! you’re all iBlinded! MICROSOFT BITCHES!!!!!
Simmons is right about the value being died to demand for the stock, but if Apple without Steve can’t come through (remember the last time Steve-o left?), they could fall waaaaay behind. Because of what they have *now*, and the demand for both their products by the faithful and their stock by the monied, I doubt they’ll fail within 5, but if they can’t catch people’s imaginations (and wallets) within that 5, they could become seriously hampered in the Next Five.
Unless, of course, all of these schmucks keep flinging lawsuits and patents at each other, then God only knows what’s going to happen. Apple’s already banned Sammy’s tablets from, what, Germany right? No matter what, I’m really afraid that competition and innovation has been replaced by patents and litigation.
There’s an old quotation (Robert Frost) that says “I never dared to be radical when young for fear it would make me conservative when old.” That’s Jobs to a T.
hmm, that’s a neat trick Simmons…*side note, the mobile theme activates when I’m on chrome for some reason. Maybe it’s this forlorn piece of junk im working on, more later*
Take a minute and think about what would happen if Ramon was actually right about this…they may be worse than they were when Jobs came back. Then again, there probably won’t be a MS investment to fall back on.
OK, I’m joking.
I don’t think that Apple is going to tank. I just think that MS is going to smack Google up a bit in the tablet game and the ripples will effect Apple enough to take notice.
@The Fight: ah so Ice weasel does show up as firefox…interesting…
I sense a widespread woosh.. I was joking with that quote, I was quoting Jimmy Buffet, not Warren. The Fight is just showing off, grandstanding, showboating, highfalutin’ if you will; whereas I bring this shit up to make good points.
I have no idea what Ramon’s doing.
MartiM: Based on the stability of the stock following his resignation and that his death has grown much more impending while the stock continues to surge, I’m thinking that there’s a decent chance the market has already absorbed what will be the news of his final flight and, among the brilliant things the man has accomplished for Apple, I think it’s a reasonable assumption to include making sure the right people and the right everything he can come up with are in place to preserve the company’s trajectory. I just think that would make it to his to do list and I also think, as god-like as he comes off to a lot of people, that he’s capable of achieving that.
Good quote, hadn’t heard that.
Fight, you:
Maybe you and I can have a Google+ circles collaboration on tweaking the plugin to differentiate between Firefox and Firefox.
I like this one!
“Apple = Steve jobs. No jobs….no iChance”
Can we all just say this shit is cyclical? That is about as reasonable explanation as anything to show that apple will not remain where they are. I mean shit people, their biggest cash-cows havne’t changed much at all since they were first intorduced.
ESPECIALLY the iphone. For the most part what it has TODAY is what other phones had before it was introduced (except for the screen).
Complacent much?
Or who knows, maybe MS will light a fire of inovation under them that forces them to do *something* with that damn thing.
Fight: Testing Chrome on Linux, looking good to me.
Sean: Hard not to agree with everything you just said, I just wish Ramon could elaborate a bit, for example embracing and extending your last point (but with 100% confidence that it’s fact of course, so get rid of the “who knows” part, because clearly he knows).
@Doug Simmons: I show off from time to time to show that I’m NOT just another fanboy. I actually use the things that I don’t like and formulate real opinions about it (not that it matters, I’m widely ignored anyway). For the record: Am I wrong for wanting to see a lil weasel casually spooning what looks to be the western world? Bah, as someone who uses Linux distros on more than just the occasional level, I say to you: “you’re no fun.”
Off the record:
Why in the blue hell would I seriously bitch about Iceweasel showing up as firefox? Come on now…
(no idea what we’re talking about? here, smile a lil’… http://www.geticeweasel.org/iceweasel_humping.gif)
Moving along now…
@Doug Simmons: Never mind, user error.
@Doug Simmons: Investor confidence rules the day in the stock market. Their current surge is driven by the fact nobody seems to know what the heck they are doing in Apple’s primary markets except Apple. Those primary markets are mobile phones, music players and tablets. Yes they are also growing in the PC market faster than their respective competitors and thats a direct result to Apple convincing people to buy into their ecosystem. Nothing bad to say about that, job well done in fact.
Its taken me until now to respond and you want to know why? Helping my wife transfer some music from one laptop to another one using iTunes. She’s been working on this for 3 days off and on a couple hours a night. It would have taken me 15 minutes on Zune or Windows Media Player. How in the hell do people put up with this? Again, job well done Apple because your marketing is top notch and far above everyone else’s.
Investors are always looking for the next big thing regardless if that next big thing. Microsoft doesn’t excite them because they are already a behemoth and any bigger the whinefest will commence and the anititrust issues will ensue. The best thing about Google and Apple dominating these explosive growth markets is it gives Microsoft the opportunity to go full speed without that monopoly word thrown around.
Will Apple fail? Yes, like Ramon said, failing is relative and for Apple that means they will no longer rule the very markets they helped drive to explosive growth. If they don’t come out with a clear differentiating product then I don’t see how Apple remains a stock in the type of demand it is in right now. I’m talking 5 years from now though so for the foreseeable future they’re golden.
I read all of that, and I still don’t know what the heck you guys are talking about.
@Joe: Sorry Joe, we tend to go off on rabbit trails and the main point gets lost. We are talking about Apple being the next major company for its stock to fall and for Apple itself to fail, relatively speaking. It all started fro RIM’s sharp decline despite turning a several hundred million proitable quarter.
Basically Simmons is calling Ramon crazy for even suggesting such a thing. Ramon is countering with Jobs being the singular vision the company follows but once he’s gone what does Apple do next? We see a glimpse of what Microsoft has planning but what innovation is Apple bringing, The iPad is basically an enlarged iPhone.
Damn…they’re failing hard today…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iI1Nom7smGzQh5mpSe_eD595ecxA?docId=0e52422abb9b4d628d74cee6a24aaa7a
Inb4 “the bigger they are…” / “what goes up” /”stock not an indicator of anything” retorts