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RE: [MD Internal] Re: BlackBerry delusions

On June 7 2012 Doug Simmons wrote:

Fellas, fellas… Let me go on record here with another stock prediction, this one with less confidence that before: Rim has almost bottomed out, maybe with the floor of about $3/share. By the way I’m the guy who said back in September 2010 “short RIM because, though it does have a pretty low P/E, I think it will get trounced by the other guys hard enough for them to feel the pain” when it was trading at 50. You would have multiplied your money by seven.

They will find cash one way or another, like they did the most recent quarter. They will also continue to figure out how to pull in profit without having to spend as much and not collapse in the process, which they also did in the most recent quarter. Their income has been heading in a scary direction, but not that scary, and they are nowhere near bankruptcy territory. Buyout target yes, bankruptcy no.

If you look at their balance sheet alone over the last few years and forget the vision of the market cap tanking, for having a big stash of cash that isn’t quickly evaporating and a healthy pile of assets, not that much lower revenue and profit, it’s odd to then look at a chart of the stock and see how it’s been crashing like this.

It’s oversold, its future isn’t as bleak as a 4 price to earnings suggests, and don’t quote me on this but for work purposes, as that’s really all it lets you do and all that I want to be able to do on a work-related piece of technology is work and not be able to screw around, the Blackberry Bold 9900 is pretty damn good. For emailing specifically — and of course BES management which ain’t easy to top. No surprise to me to see Eric Schmidt (google chair) getting caught TMZ-style using that phone.

They might beg to get bought out on the cheap, they may sell assets faster and faster, they may do a reverse split, if they run out of too much cash they may declare chapter 11 (the good bankruptcy) but not 7 and that would not happen anytime soon, but they won’t get delisted and the day of your walking into a somewhat moderately-sized phone joint and not find the a blackberry shelf will never come. Guaran’-effin’-teed.

And that right there is post-worthy, so I might as well go ahead and sign it:

Doug Simmons