So there’s another official analyst information “release” about Windows Phone 7. Digitimes Research has concluded that, among other findings, Windows Phone 7 will have a 6.2% marketshare by the end of 2012. Now, Windows Phone faithful out there, before you even begin to well up with emotion about this there is another report saying that Nokia’s Lumia 800, despite being perched as a bestseller on several websites, has all but gone belly up in Europe. There’s even a website that claims total European penetration by the Lumia is sitting at a fraction of a percent.
For those confused, let’s also be clear that Gartner predicted that WP7 would fail miserably and also blow up like a frozen turkey in a deep fryer with less than six months time span in between both predictions. If we travel back further, we see people at Bloomberg proclaiming the iPhone would fail. Analysts seem to have entirely too much trouble doing the job they’re paid to do. If a janitor at your job just never seemed to be able to mop up more than half of the messes, why would you continue to pay him?
As a Windows Phone 7 early adopter and full time user, I myself would love nothing more than to see it become a viable and stable ecosystem based upon a rock-solid OS. I want it to absorb more marketshare not because of some mindless fanboy cheering, but for my own well being in knowing I’ve invested money into apps on a phone ecosystem that won’t suddenly turn into vapor a few years down the line. What I will not do, and what I keep seeing other websites doing, is giving credence and even putting their faith in people who get paid to be right, when they’re only right about half as much as they’re expected to be.
As a community (not only WinPho7 but iOS and Android fans as well), we like to eat up news stories about our platform of choice. This, to us, is just another sports team to root or our own technocratic election; The votes we cast are money. While involvement is encouraging, giving these “findings” anything more than a cursory glance would be doing us all a disservice.