Nielson has some new figures about the desirability of various mobile operating systems. Interestingly, when asked what smartphone people were intending to buy, Windows Phones were picked 7% of the time in the initial polling (done from July 2010-September 2010) whereas the most recent polling (from January – March 2011) sets that number at just 6%. Granted it’s a mere 1% shift, but in a best case that’s a flat number so the marketing push has thus far failed to result in any large scale desire to move to WP7. Of course, there’s Mango and Nokia in the future but that’s 6 months off and in the mobile world that’s a pretty long time.

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At the same time iOS went from 33% to 31%, Blackberry went from 13% to 11% but Android went from 26% to 31%.

In line with this trend, here is what recent phone purchasers bought:

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And that puts us at the current installed OS base:

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Putting it all together, in another six months expect both Blackberry and Windows Phone to drop in this metric. Oddly, based on the desirability of iOS, even though it’s slightly down over the apst 6 months, it’s still anticipated to have higher demand than where it sits so it may actually rise.

Anyway, it’s clear that Microsoft has not ignited a fire yet and they have to put the pressure on for Mango and the Nokia alliance and while all indications are positive on that front, their old enemy is still lurking – time.

To be continued…

15 COMMENTS

  1. The problem is that it seems only enthusiasts are even aware of the new windows phone platform. I think it will change for the better over time as more and more phones get released and advertised. (I’m looking at you Nokia:). Virtually none of my friends even know what my phone is…but they all seem to be quite impressed when I demo the OS.

  2. @theenforcer000: Agreed and without new phones launching there’s no buzz. We just keep hearing rumors about Verizon and new phones (like the AT&T HD7) but they need to have a stream of products and news (tangible news that gets to people’s hands) to get people’s attention.

  3. The part of Windows Phone is very probably declining because of continuously decreasing presence of Windows Mobile 6.x in people’s hands and absent in market.

    Without clean division WM6 – WP7 you can’s say anything about market dynamics for Windows Phone 7.

  4. Just don’t confuse losing market share with attrition. As each day passes there are more Windows Phones in use, fired up in consumers’ hands, than there were the previous day. So there’s that.

  5. The reason this is, Android offers better hardware and more features. I was using the Samsung Focus, but after started using the Motorola Atrix and I totally forgot about the Focus its just sitting in a drawer. WP7 is just missing too many features….

  6. “The reason this is, Android offers better hardware and more features.’

    That is true. But the OS itself is just a disaster. Even on far more powerful hardware, it’s still choppy and laggy, has simple features buried under layers, and is not intuitive to use in the least. You want proof, check the link comparing WP7 on your Focus versus Android on your Motorola Atrix. It’s a laugh riot. As for features, Mango will address that.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZEdxqZt6uw

    I said it before and I’ll say it again, anyone who expected Microsoft to just dominated the mobile market after being absent for two years is just a damn fool. Microsoft’s entry back into this market was always going to be a long grind.

    “Just don’t confuse losing market share with attrition.”

    Only you could look at this chart and see declining market share for WP7. Do you not even realize that WP7 was at 2% market share? Not to mention that WP7 is not even on Verizon yet, nor does WP7 really have what you could call killer or exciting hardware.

    As for the article, some of the comments don’t jibe with the charts.

  7. @Kindongo: I still don’t get how some people say that they will be locked in a contract for X amount of years and then there are people like you who have at least 2 top of the line devices in their ecosystem around the same time. Always amazes me…

    Anyway…My own interest dropped in WP7. Seems to make sense however. I was all geeked up to get my WP7 device, did so, loaded up on the things that I needed (100+ apps, 16.4 GB’s of music) and K.I.M. (that’s kept it moving, L seven’s). Curiosity, piqued for the moment. As we get closer to Mango and the major update after that (which I presume is in Spring 2012, ***kinda like the Xbox updates, huh?***), my interest will go back up.

  8. I recognize that I’m making generalizations, but there seems to be an age demographic in which smartphones are not the domain of techies alone, and could reasonably be considered a mass consumer product. Most members of this tech-savvy generation are also (1) highly skeptical of marketing (even though they’re affected by it), and (2) reliant primarily upon word-of-mouth recommendations from friends. So until there’s enough of a user base that they see the phones in the hands of their peers regularly, I don’t expect much growth in WP7 sales no matter how many features or advertisements are pushed out the door. The WP7 numbers so far are what I think people should have expected, and are not (in my opinion) a judgment on the OS’s [lack of?] quality.

    What’s interesting to consider is if members of this demographic tend to consider Apple and Google as ‘friends,’ in some significant sense. Certainly, Microsoft is viewed like a member of their parents’ generation rather than as a ‘peer.’

    BTW, Simmons, are you trying to rehabilitate your image with a comment like that? People might start accusing you of seeing the big picture or being level-headed, or maybe even of being insightful! And where’s the fun in that?

  9. Like some people have already said, I didn’t expect WP7 to be leading in anyway at this point. No matter how “new” or slick the UI is, it is still missing quite a bit. However, I think things will change with Mango. MS has been advertising like crazy during the NBA playoffs but I don’t think they are going to gain any market share until there are more choices on phones. They should also consider giving celebrities the phones and that will change a lot of peoples minds! However, it won’t really make sense to do that push until Mango is really ready.

    With that said, still loving my Surround w/ the “hacked” NoDo (I did the pull the plug workaround).

  10. Well, MS could throw Advertising a better budget. Aside from social networking aimed people who already HAVE the damn things I haven’t seen squad for advertisement. Regardless about what I think about their practices, software or hardware, Apple has marketing down pat.

  11. Hey Joe, once WP7 gets updated to Mango and they use competitive hardware, I will go back to WP7, until then, I sticking with Android and don’t get wrong, I always been a fan of MS and I used WM mobile since it came out, But WP7 is missing too many features that I use every day, for example the ability to use a Call Screening app.

    @ The Fight, I using too devices because I paid full price for one of them.

  12. @Kindongo:

    I gathered as much, I just wondered how many people that claimed to do so, actually did. If you look on a site like Engadget or XDA, some people will tell you that they have the Droid X, Droid Pro and an Unlocked Milestone…

    Guess it will remain food for thought.

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