On Thu, Jun 16, 2011 at 5:29 PM, Doug Simmons wrote:
Not too late to short rim, call your broker: RIM Talks to the Street
Let’s see – Treo was king…fell. Blackberry was king….fell. iPhone was king…fell. Now Android is king – wonder what will happen to them… This niche is still immature and players are still rising and falling.
iPhone is still king by singular device sales in the us. There’s just a shit
load of android devices out there.
I don’t think iOS or android are going anywhere anytime soon.
Then again, mango is on its way….
Wanna start making wagers again ppl?
Over-under WP7/8 Marketshare by the end of 2012: 12.5% (U.S. Only)… That should be enough to encourage equal betting, right?
That’s not a bad over under for the end of 2012, but I do already have $70 in two outstanding anti-WP positions; however 12.5% in eighteen long months, how could they not hit that without simply giving up.
Which actually, on the other hand, is not extremely unlikely, the towel and general drive behind this being thrown in by then. After all, it’s where the towel belongs. It’s been a joke; but now it’s just sad. "Hey everybody we went up 90% in sales or whatever!" Yeah right bro, that’s called a dead cat bounce or anomalous. By the way, isn’t WP still being identified on most pie charts (that aren’t hotlinked on WMPU) as Other?
I’ll take it for thirty bucks (betting against of course) at 15% by the end of 2012 for the consensus of what the installed base is of WP*. To keep it simple let’s go with whatever comScore says, even though they lump WM and WP in together. First come first serve. Anyone?
Alternatively I’ll take hanging in single digits at the end of 2011, a more exciting bet. Downside to that is that deep down you all know you’d lose the bet, upside is you’re delusional and don’t see it that way.
Oh and David, regarding that pattern you came up with, first of all this is not a niche anymore, the smartphone market. These phones, they’ve become a big deal. Think you meant emerging, but it’s also emerged while beginning to, if you look at Google searching on weekdays versus weekends on desktops versus phones, it’s emerged enough to begin to submerge emerged markets. Dynamic is the word. The niche you may have been thinking of is the fringe platform market in which Microsoft is already beginning to hold its own. Totally destroyed Windows Mobile and webOS (eventually).
I see this pattern a little differently. You see it as the king not remaining the king for too long. I see it as Android picking off the competition one by one, steadily, until it ran out of targets. So maybe there’s not quite as much chaos here as you implied; probably, I’m guessing, not enough to suggest with a straight face explicitly that WP has a good shot at being the king of anything someday.
To make these wagers fair perhaps we should factor in revenue Microsoft earns with their
bullshit patent shakedownslicensing fee activities to the WP market share figures?
I can’t believe you actually defend threatening to sue Barnes and Noble if they don’t sign an NDA and suffer a bullshit money grab for having a web browser that displays a background image after the text of a page if it downloads the text first. Fucking think about that for a second, that Microsoft patented that (bravo jackoffs!) and is using it to shake companies down with the MS apologists saying "blame the government / everybody’s doing it," then try to tell me how that doesn’t qualify as patent abuse. Repugnant shit.
By the way, you keep saying that Microsoft, unlike Google and everyone else, will stand by their developers legally. The only company I know of who actually did that is Apple. Maybe Google did too, but I didn’t google it. Making shovelware deals left and right does not qualify as calling off your dogs from shaking down book companies to defend the I’m a WP7! developer. You don’t get to brag about that yet so stop it.