MobilityLeaks: Wanna start making wagers again ppl?”
On Thu, Jun 16, 2011 at 5:29 PM, Doug Simmons wrote:
Not too late to short rim, call your broker: RIM Talks to the Street
David K:
Let’s see – Treo was king…fell. Blackberry was king….fell. iPhone was king…fell. Now Android is king – wonder what will happen to them… This niche is still immature and players are still rising and falling.
Chris:
iPhone is still king by singular device sales in the us. There’s just a shit
load of android devices out there.I don’t think iOS or android are going anywhere anytime soon.
Then again, mango is on its way….
Fight:
Wanna start making wagers again ppl?
Over-under WP7/8 Marketshare by the end of 2012: 12.5% (U.S. Only)… That should be enough to encourage equal betting, right?
Doug Simmons:
That’s not a bad over under for the end of 2012, but I do already have $70 in two outstanding anti-WP positions; however 12.5% in eighteen long months, how could they not hit that without simply giving up.
Which actually, on the other hand, is not extremely unlikely, the towel and general drive behind this being thrown in by then. After all, it’s where the towel belongs. It’s been a joke; but now it’s just sad. "Hey everybody we went up 90% in sales or whatever!" Yeah right bro, that’s called a dead cat bounce or anomalous. By the way, isn’t WP still being identified on most pie charts (that aren’t hotlinked on WMPU) as Other?
I’ll take it for thirty bucks (betting against of course) at 15% by the end of 2012 for the consensus of what the installed base is of WP*. To keep it simple let’s go with whatever comScore says, even though they lump WM and WP in together. First come first serve. Anyone?
Alternatively I’ll take hanging in single digits at the end of 2011, a more exciting bet. Downside to that is that deep down you all know you’d lose the bet, upside is you’re delusional and don’t see it that way.
Doug Simmons:
Oh and David, regarding that pattern you came up with, first of all this is not a niche anymore, the smartphone market. These phones, they’ve become a big deal. Think you meant emerging, but it’s also emerged while beginning to, if you look at Google searching on weekdays versus weekends on desktops versus phones, it’s emerged enough to begin to submerge emerged markets. Dynamic is the word. The niche you may have been thinking of is the fringe platform market in which Microsoft is already beginning to hold its own. Totally destroyed Windows Mobile and webOS (eventually).
I see this pattern a little differently. You see it as the king not remaining the king for too long. I see it as Android picking off the competition one by one, steadily, until it ran out of targets. So maybe there’s not quite as much chaos here as you implied; probably, I’m guessing, not enough to suggest with a straight face explicitly that WP has a good shot at being the king of anything someday.
To make these wagers fair perhaps we should factor in revenue Microsoft earns with their
bullshit patent shakedownslicensing fee activities to the WP market share figures?I can’t believe you actually defend threatening to sue Barnes and Noble if they don’t sign an NDA and suffer a bullshit money grab for having a web browser that displays a background image after the text of a page if it downloads the text first. Fucking think about that for a second, that Microsoft patented that (bravo jackoffs!) and is using it to shake companies down with the MS apologists saying "blame the government / everybody’s doing it," then try to tell me how that doesn’t qualify as patent abuse. Repugnant shit.
By the way, you keep saying that Microsoft, unlike Google and everyone else, will stand by their developers legally. The only company I know of who actually did that is Apple. Maybe Google did too, but I didn’t google it. Making shovelware deals left and right does not qualify as calling off your dogs from shaking down book companies to defend the I’m a WP7! developer. You don’t get to brag about that yet so stop it.
Stockholm/battered-wives-syndrome-having bitches…
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About The Author
Doug Simmons
Biographical info.. hmm. I have a history of not being able to strike the balance between what is "safe" to put into these forms and what is, in my mind at least, funny. Can't do it.
The funny thing here is that most people pretty much concede that Android is king right now and for the forseeable future. The debate is really over who will be number 2 in a couple of years with Windows Phone enthusiasts seeing an opportunity with the fall arrival of Mango and the fact Nokia is talking big stuff as a sign that they’ll indeed overtake Apple by the year 2015.
The end of this year will see Windows Phone still in single digit smartphone share but it’ll be on a clear rise. By the end of 2012 I can see it reaching 15%. The more I hear about Microsoft’s plans and Nokia’s full court press on establishing themselves as the leading OEM I see that the global reach will be significant especially with Windows 8 getting close to a billion people used to the tile UI benefits.
Simmons continues to show an unhealthy fear of WP.
Okay so in May (according to this comScore) it’s at 6.7% (down from 8% in January), by the end of this year you put it between 7 and under 10%, then by 2012 you “see” it at 15%. So let me plot that data out and do some extrapolatin’.
Well that looks a lot like a parabola, definitely exponential growth. Let’s forget January and start with the May figure. In half a year you see it going up a percent or two, right? A couple percent. Then you see it going up six percent in the next twelve months, 50% faster than now through December. So for 2013, 9% higher, touching 25%, 2014, 33% and finally 2015, >53%.
Did I extrapolate you unfairly or is that where you see things heading? Well hey, Mango baby, sky’s the limit!
Consider the fact that Mango doesn’t come out until the fall means the adoption and marketing push will take place over only a couple months before the end of the year. Android isn’t going to fall off a cliff and we both know Apple loyalists will to a large degree buy another iPhone. Considering the fact who I consider the top 3 contenders (Android, Apple, Microsoft) will all have substantial platform updates a clear rise by Windows Phone is noteworthy.
When we talk about marketshare percentage are we talking globally or U.S. only?
I still don’t get what Nokia’s “global reach” will do to shake things up. Same for their, and I know this is your favorite term you fruit, “multiple price points” (cheaper phones) for people who love Nokia, love cheap phones, love Microsoft and don’t really care one way or the other about Symbian.
Guess what also has global reach, Android. Any idea how global Apple’s reach is? RIM? Wherever Nokia puts up a Windows Phone shelf, there will be a lot more shelves of the real players dwarfing them. You think that because they sell a lot of phones that there will be significant momentum sustained with Nokia customers floating onto another platform? Did you ever buy a phone because you liked the OEM and didn’t care that the platform was something else? Let’s say you were a Nokia fan. You’d probably be into Symbian too. Would you not be more likely to follow Symbian onto another OEM than you would follow Nokia into another company’s platform? Same question, but pretend your a developer.
Got any specifics (I’ll settle for “leaks”) on the new wave of Nokia WP phones? Or is “Fall 2011” the best you can do?
Everyone who buys Nokia smartphones in India (or any Nokia phone for that matter) does so without having even heard of the words like Symbian, S60, Anna, Meego or whatever else goes for a platform. They buy it because its a Nokia. It is not a matter of being a fan, it has to do with trust. Nokia has taken a beating in the last year but that is in its lower-mid price segment dumb/feature phones where local manufacturers have taken a bite in the market and mind share. At over 800 million mobile subscribers (about 600 million active) and growing fast, India is not a small market either that it should be left out of the ‘global reach’ paradigm, considering that USA had only 300 million people in all and smartphone marketing is more and more aiming at making people upgrade to smartphones. And no…. Android or iPhone don’t exist in India in any numbers to give them more importance than the ‘Others’ category (Sorry to disappoint many). Blackberry has a good marketshare and a huge mindshare though.
I don’t see anything changing drastically in the next few months before Nokia Windows Phones hit the market. For everyone here, it will be just Nokia smartphones. Its even likely that Nokia will not play up the Windows name too much in its advertising campaign, because it won’t matter. Its more likely they will boast of having seamless Office, Hotmail, Facebook chat and XBox games on Nokia phones!!! Zune and Bing have no brand recall in India and maybe they’ll call the Bing button just a dedicated Search button with voice and visual search.
And by the way, I haven’t seen any Android device in the wild in India yet. Not a single. I have seen several iPhones and hundreds of Blackberries. Windows Phone 7 – they’re not officially available in India till Mango hits the scene. So much so for global reach.
Ahh…. forgot this one. Elop may reveal a NWP7 device or two on 21 Jun in Singapore…. mark that CommunicAsia 2011 in your calendars. Its a rumour and conjencture, but a strong one at that.
Are we talking share of units sold/shipped in a given quarter? Also, I wonder about the Nokia partnership. Nokias are thick as bricks. Might sell well abroad but without some serious design innovation, will they catch fire in the U.S.?
Doug Simmons, is really something else, I don’t know what MSFT did to him, that’s he is really negative towards them, wp7 is obviously on the rise, it doesn’t matter what the number says its definitely getting attention… Android??? Not really worth talking about..
SELL NOW FIX IT LATER… All KINGS FALL DOUG!!!!!!!!