MobilityLeaks: Sunk Costs

On 6/6/2011 4:14 PM, Murani Lewis wrote:

Chris in one of your comments you stated that you hoped for Windows Phone sake that iOS5’s announcement was a letdown.  Where do you think just by the information and features shown today Mango stands against iOS5?  I’m always curious of your take because you are clear that iOS and Apple is your platform of choice so you have a different take.  It helps bring perspective to the conversation.

Ramon:

Leave ios5 in serious trouble. People are beginning to realize windows phone offer superior functionality in way it make sense most. They’re also beginning to realize Apple been selling them the same shit over and over again.  Microsoft played their hand…and Apple didn’t match it….remeber this as the turning point.

Microsoft is crushing them all one by one. Operating systems…gaming consoles…search engines…and yes…mobile platforms.

Sent from my Windows Phone

Chris:

O.o are we on the same planet?

Doug Simmons:

No Ramon, YOU remember this as your moment of your height of self delusion about your stupid phone. Put this email in your OneNote. Because the way it’s funny to me now it will be especially funny, and maybe even to you if you can admit it, to you retrospectively.

Meanwhile, just in case you’re right, I’ll fire up the popcorn, kick back and watch the tables between Apple and Windows Phone get completely turned like you actually believe will happen.
I don’t get it Ramon, you seem vaguely intelligent, this email appears to be from you, ..

David K:

i hate to side with iChris here and I’ve read nothing about it yet but if iOS5 did nothing Microsoft would probably need 12-18 months to catch up to it…yes WP7 has features it doesn’t have but there are still a lot of missing features between iOS/Android and WP7 and the 500 new features works to close the gap but there’s definitely still a gap.

Doug Simmons

All this talk about features and Mango and you know what? Sales dry up this month, approaching attrition, market share headed south. It’s no longer just going up slower than before, it’s sinking.

Evidently, no one gives a shit about the number five hundred except for some people with a Samsung Focus in their hand.

Time for Microsoft to divest and do what they do best, rake in licensing fees.

Murani:

I just don’t get why you use this opportunity to bring up sales numbers when we’re not talking about marketshare or sales clips.  We’re simply talking about how does today’s release of iOS5 top features compare to the Mango features that have been covered.

To me Mango now clearly has features it can tout as differentiators.  Every conversation from an Apple or Android fanboy always includes the question "what can windows phone do that either the iPhone or Android can’t."  Today we see that for one Apple has no answer to the depth of integrated app support and no real answer to live tiles and the awesome groups feature.  Nor did they mention anything that signified something more than an unified mail box.

12-18 months isn’t true DavidK, not necessarily at least.  The major feature can always be closed significantly faster by 3rd party devs.

Jim Schneider:

I’m truly torn between both.  One big reason is the amount of money that I’ve spent on my iOS stuff and the number of friends that have an iPhone.  But damn it would be nice to start creating apps for Windows Phone.

Murani:

Think of the money invested as sunk costs.  Never a good thing to let sunk costs affect your decision moving forward.  My advice is wait until the fall and see if any OEM delivers a first class device then make your choice.  Always remember that Windows Phone can message, chat and IM with iPhone users with no problem.

Chris:

I don’t think of it as sunk costs. I like the apps I’ve bought. Period.

Doug Simmons:

Spoken like someone who didn’t spend enough time wikipediaing sunk cost.

Lol Murani. That’s one thing I like about the environment you help provide here. I can feel okay about saying something really stupid now and then because in a few hours or so it will get washed over by you encouraging someone to go try the road not taken and to just do it and think of the stuff he already has and likes as write-offs trapping him into a world of mediocrity and no tile fruitiness.

Chris:

I do need tiles though.  How else would I see whats going on?

Doug Simmons:

You gotta either exit your happenin’ party or stop skydiving for a minute or not get freaky with your lady who’s clearly in the mood just so you can look really closely at your phone and get engaged without all of life’s annoying distractions. That’s how else.

Murani:

Ha Ha, clearly you’re happy with your Android and thats great just don’t play like Mango and the Nokia partnership doesn’t give Microsoft a legit shot at shaking things up.  To deny that would indeed be delusional as Microsoft’s recent announcements have done nothing but showcase that they are all in when it comes to the mobile, cloud and desktop.

Fight:

Work has been rather taxing so forgive me for not jumping on a few more threads today…

OK.  First things first, WTF. 

We all know that WP7 strength (much like Microsoft as a whole) is in it’s future.  Licensing fees keeps the lights on, sure.  The bill for the SQL server at my job alone is enough of an indicator of this for me.  But you have to be damn joking if you think that Google is going to completely overtake the industry while everyone else fades into obscurity; or better yet that Microsoft is just going to crash and burn in this space. 

Enough of all this, I gotta post something…

Oh yea, before I forget, the iOS announcement today further reiterates my point that OS’s like WebOS and WP7 are never too late to the party.  That notification system, while better than what they have currently, it still looks like a pretty task manager for WM 6.5.x.

If the leaders go out and actively see what the marketplace is doing and react to it, then there is always room for new and innovative products. 

BTW, I’m glad the slingo is starting to rub off on you all…I see articles and emails mentioning "birds" and "calling a spade a spade."  *Mr. Burns Voice* Excellent. 

– Fight

Doug Simmons:

Well what do you make of this Murani, what I call the bigger picture here: I flipped through my usual amount of news today, maybe five different sessions, and among the things I read was Apple stuff, Google stuff, some Israeli anti-RPG liquid metal spraying thing, China getting pissed at Google for getting pissed at China for hacking them again, a few more Apple things, what else, right, and an article, THREE articles actually about how Windows Phone wasn’t selling.

That’s the closest to Mango’s new features I got, some blurb Ralph Vega said about five hundred features and how a device from Nokia would be nice and Windows 8 is beautiful with fruity tiles, and that the sales sucked. And no my array of feeds is not weighted enough away from Microsoft to snuff out a big news item. I am abreast. I even have a Microsoft feed bundle which I give out here from time to time.

My point is, again, that no one cares about WP or Mango or all these hundreds of new features. In fact at the time of a great escalation in blogger excitement over the future (always with the future…) of Windows Phone sales dissipate depressingly enough that I don’t even want to write about it. But hey, no one’s going to stop you from riding around in your sunken ship underwater. Just make sure you take down all your coworkers and us too with you because that’s how nice a guy you are.

Why do you think substituting HTC and Samsung with Nokia will "shake things up" enough to prove me to be the delusional one? What is it about Nokia selling a phone or two (at the probable estrangement of the other OEMs) that you think will suddenly and finally usher this platform success? Don’t you fucking get it? It’s not going to happen.

Oh guess what asshole, I *still* haven’t seen one Windows Phone in the wild. And you know very well I go outside my share in a pretty dense city and take mass transit. Not just passively. Sometimes when I’m on the subway I tell myself Okay I’m gonna look at every single phone and try to find a match. Nope, iPhone, Nope, couple Androids, another iPhone, iPhone, hey, a Blackberry, Android, Android, iPhone…

Chris:

I haven’t seen one yet either…..