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MobilityLeaks: David K Questions My Medication

On 9/1/2011 12:50 AM, David K wrote:

Just making sure I’m right on these numbers. PC’s sell 85m/quarter and iPad is about 7m/quarter. Correct?

Why is it relevant? Because I think MS because the #1 tablet OS in the first year when W8 comes out…

Chris Leiter:

I’m still at a loss with how people think that the windows tablet market (which has been around for TEN YEARS and hasn’t sold for shit) is going to magically turn around just because mad-man Ballmer slaps an 8 on the box.

Sent from my iPad 2

David K:

I’m shocked that an iOS user whose OS was dead a few years ago could be the one making this argument.

Simply put, one computer that you can work on with a mouse and keyboard, remove from the dock and it goes to Metro/tablet mode which is a touch base UI. Remember, this has been in the works since before Win7 was completed. This is a total redesign and all apps will be written to accept both touch and mouse depending on the mode you are in. Somewhat brilliant to sell a PC that can work in two modes without missing a beat so the concept of a PC that is a tablet or a tablet that is a PC so you never have to sacrifice mobility or function and you can do all of your work and yet also have those fancy full screen apps…all at the same price. There’s no need to buy an iPad if your PC is a tablet. Yes MS eats its own market to a degree with this but they build an ecosystem so they have more app sales to make up the spread and some.

Doug Simmons:

You’re only at a loss, Chris, in your own head because you’re surrounded by desperately emphatic fanatics who are even further lost in their heads and vehemently attempting to recruit converts and rail against people they perceive as not being helpful to that end.

Everything will always be a sideshow to the iPad beyond our deaths. Especially Microsoft products, no matter how many PC-like things they claim you can do on their thing that you can’t on the iPad. Android will give Apple a tiny run for its money in this department, but don’t expect an iPhone/Android phone war with tablets evolving the same way it did with the phones. And that’s coming from your local Google nut.

I will say, however, that Microsoft has a shot at giving Samsung a tiny run for its money — about proportional to Samsung tablets versus the iPad which is to say 1-2% of what Samsung sells.
That’s just the way it is.

That said, I fully understand that no matter how many years after years go by with Microsoft failing to deliver on the next big thing they announce about something showing up at some point down the line (versus how Apple silently works and then bam, here you go everybody, that’ll be $600-$3500 bucks give or take) and failing to deliver doesn’t mean that they won’t eventually connect the bat to the ball. But they won’t and even David K and Surur knows that.

David K:

Who gave you your meds and why? You don’t think Android is going to take a nice ding at the iPad when Amazon hits 5m tablets in a quarter and drives the tablet market to the bottom in terms of pricing? TouchPad started this but it makes the iPad a luxury item again.

Again, jsut a few years ago the thought of Apple competing with MS would have been a joke. And the thought of Android overtaking the iPhone would have been laughable. That’s how this shit works. Your reign on the top is short like leprechans…

Apple’s day is coming. haldol

Doug Simmons:

While you may be convinced that history always repeats itself with respect to companies or product lines eventually failing to be on top, one thing you’re overlooking about history repeating itself is that Microsoft may not break its huge streak of doing nothing noteworthy for, how long? Over a decade? So long I don’t even know how long anymore and I sometimes blog about technology.

Long enough for the MP3 player company to leapfrog them into being about equally in demand (the company) to own as fucking Exxon. I see that history repeating itself, the accumulation of success on Apple’s part especially with tablets, as a more likely thing than Windows tablets making it into the big leagues, let alone dethroning the iPad.

On the other hand, that new Samsung thing sure is thin. Also, yeah, if all these companies band together to do upside-down price fixing of selling their tablets at a huge loss indefinitely, that could prove me wrong.

Meanwhile the iPad will continue to improve, both hardware wise and software, and the longer and longer Microsoft takes to get anything done, for example turn-by-turn navigation, the more impossible it will be for them to accomplish anything. The more time passes, the fewer things Microsoft will be able to come up with that Apple already didn’t.

Chris Leiter:

The touchpad sold at $99 because it has a $300+ bill for parts.  A $99 tablet with a $75-150 bill for parts will not outsell the iPad.  Thinking as much is just crazy. It’s not like a cheap android tablet hasn’t been available for a while either… How are they selling btw?  Just because amazon slaps their name on a turd (android 3.x) doesn’t mean it will sell like the kindle.

If it happens, great, but I’m skeptical. Very skeptical.

Sent from my iPad 2

David K:

Oh and I want a damn 17″ laptop/convertible. Yeah that’s how I touch…dock it, remove it, take it to a meeting and use the keyboard. Get home, flip the keyboard underneath and go to a large tablet that’s still functional. Don’t want 17″? Your preference. You’re not left with one choice. Want just a tablet without a keyboard? Done? Docking station? Done. All peripherals. Of course, it’s a PC.

Chris Leiter:

Dude, everything you have said is possible now, so why hasn’t it caught on?

Because windows sucks with touch. I dont know why a HTML5 skin on top of windows 7 should magically change that. If it could, why hasn’t someone just created an app for windows that’ll do that by now? Do you think a mobile OS-inspired (a mobile OS that has a magically shrinking market share btw) interface will suddenly change that? Honestly?

Maybe its because legacy apps cripple innovation? A registry? Really? For the love of terabytes, please get rid of the fucking registry.

And finally, Why won’t it sell like mad?

Because Microsoft isn’t cool.

How do you take a company that is only cool in the gaming world, introduce a ‘new’ concept to people that really isn’t, and convince them that it’s x-amount better than the iPad?  And yes, the iPad is the yardstick.  The iPad is selling more copies in a day or two than most competing tablets sell in a quarter or even a year. And that’s not an exaggeration. Hell, even the best selling PC can’t compare to those numbers and PC makers make FAR less per unit than Apple does.

It’s all about money.

Please, tell me how MS can pull this off. I’d like to know. Cause if you can figure out how to beat the worlds best marketing team, the worlds best product designers, and the worlds fastest growing and most profitable retailers, you should be in the business and be a billionaire.

I’m not saying apple will overtake the PC market anytime soon, that’s crazy, they’re still very expensive machines. But the fact that the PC market is in negative growth for the first time ever and the Mac sales are way up shouldn’t be ignored. And that’s before you figure in iPad sales.

Take all that momentum, slam on the brakes and ‘introduce’ a new Microsoft tablet. I don’t know if you remember a few years ago when ms was pushing the shit out of win7, they were showing off tablets like mad. There were dozens of these amazing things on the market!  How’d that go over? Surely the OEMs were able to cash in on that lucrative market… No?


I just dont see it. And my run-on rant has a lot of the reasons that keep me from seeing how MS could possibly retake the tablet market.

-Chris Leiter

Sent from my iPhone

Matt Anderson:

I think you forget how massively unfucking cool Macs were between the early 90’s and the iPhone. Dude, even OSX wasn’t shit before the iPhone. Seriously! Saying that no one can do it other than apple is absolutely ridiculous. Remember when ford was eating shit and about to die like the other us auto makers and the gov said “yo dawg! We gone bail yo ass out of this shit stick!” Ford said fuck that, and reinvented themselves in a vastly profitable way and are coming out with some amazing vehicles for the first time in ever. What the hell was ever cooler than the possibilities of surface? Microsoft makes cool shit, its just they usually make cool shit people aren’t able to afford for another ten years. And Microsoft, despite your argument for legacy abandonment, does and will occasionally drag everyone, kicking and screaming like 5 years olds hopped up on mountain dew, pixie stix, and their own unmedicated adhd-ness, into the future. Im saying it’s possible. Where was apple last time jobs wasnt at the helm? Hmmm.


Got my first Windows tablet in 2005 (Acer convertible) and I think it was somewhere between $1300-$1700. Fix that and it’s a new ball game. Shit, I might even stand in line for one of these. Bahhhhhh.
Sent from my phone

David K:

iCrhis, the difference is that all the shit about the UI sucking at touch is going to be a thing of the past. That’s what they’ve been donig for the last 3 years. So it’s not a large phone OS. It’s a full OS that has a touch overlay. If a third party introduced it it would never have the quality and it would never catch on to everyone the way that an MS overlay would. It’s not just the homescreen though. Again, all apps can run in two modes if the dev enables it. A desktop/PC mode for using a mouse and a tablet/finger touch mode when you’re on the road. Flip the switch to turn on the mode. That’s what they’ve done and that’s what they’ll show off at Build. Comparing this to the past is like the people that talk about Windows Mobile. MS killed it off and you can see the degree to which they left that on the cutting room floor. It was a ground up rework to get to WP7 and that’s what they’re doing here as well with their interface and user experience.

MS will give you flexibility in price point and customization of sizes. This is more like Android but even larger since this expands to full PCs. Apple is still selling a single size and it’s fine but not a PC. If you go to MAB then it’s a different OS with different apps. Again, MS is actually going to have one universal marketplace for their tablets and desktops. Same app wherever you are. And porting from phone to pc to xbox is not a chore. It’s all the same language.

It’s ambitious and that’s why Ballmer said this was their most ambitious OS ever. He’s right. Brilliant shit they have going on over there.


Fuck Apple…


IPad $500 starting point.  Windows slates close to a grand.  That pushes anyone not in business out the market.  Have you ever seen a ad campaign for windows slates like there was for just windows 7?  There was zero push for consumer adoption.  U don’t think that is a big deal?

OEMs have to price them correctly.  At equal pricing I’d buy a system like David explained over the ipad in a sec.  Schools would flock to them because having a dockable full featured and cool  interface PC that can be taken home is ideal.

Sent from my mobile office

David K:

WAit you don’t think the Amazon tablet at $400 sells a lot? Android lacks a Kindle. What I mean is that it’s so fragmented that they lack one device to look to and Amazon is looking to do something no one else has. They are willing to sell on a thin margin because they want something else- to sell services. They have their cloud music, their Android store, etc. They want to get their services sold and don’t care about making money on hardware…just like the Kindle.

And MS has one massive fucking innovation you’re overlooknig Simmons – Kinect. Now that I have one and have used it – it’s revolutionary. Already the fastest sellnig electronics device ever (Guinness record). And when tv integration is added and it gets integrated into Win8 it just keeps moving forward. It’s a great product with legs.

Doug Simmons:

This is neither here nor there but Murani, you know those Samsung tablet commercials with the guy singing “tooodaaayay-ay-ay”? Whenever I hear that I think of you for some reason.

Weird, right? How does that make you feel?