We (being Americans) tend to dismiss Nokia as relevant since no one uses Nokia phones in America. But as you should know, they’re a huge global player and if Nokia had went Android it would have meant doom for Windows Phone. However, going Windows Phone they did make it a three way race. Just check this out. I’m simply using Garnet’s 2010 figures and this is just for illustration purposes:

2010 Worldwide Mobile Operating Systems

OK Symbian looks pretty strong there. But as we now, the forthcoming Blackberry devices are going to be able to run Android apps, so let’s go ahead and throw RIM into the Android category. Not because it’s running the OS but by running its apps, it’s a huge boost for Android’s market as well as the platform and developer’s and users will follow:

OK so now Android is starting to show its muscle. Now what happens if Google was able to sell Nokia on Android and was able to convert all of those Symbian phones to Android:

That reminds me of Ghostbusters. Some serious worldwide Goog domination. But wait, that’s not what happened. Let’s flip the switch and convert the Symbian phones to Windows Phone:

OK keep it clean ladies – nothing below the belt, ok?

Yeah, it’s a fight at this point. Again, I know someone is going to fault the stats used and the assumption that there’s a 100% conversion rate from one base to another. I get that and that’s not what this is about. This shows you how close Android came to really dominating and how ultimately Windows Phone can make itself relevant. Not just by preventing a K.O. but also by partnering up with a giant and getting their slice of the pie. This should keep Windows Phone relevant until Windows 8 comes out and then there’s a cross-platform market and development tools and then the gloves are off…

2 COMMENTS

  1. Something of note is that it seems more and more likely that Google (Android by proxy) gets dragged into court on antitrust charges. Now it’l be Microsoft as the underdog who is finally released from the shackles their antitrust agreement placed on them.

    Apple also seems to be a big loser (not in profit but market share) as they might be reduced to a “boutique” brand just like they are in the computer space. Oh lord I can only imagine what will happen in 2012 when the release of Windows 8 arrives particularly when combined with the ability to run on ARM and SoC solutions.

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