I’ve been gone for a while with some personal stuff, mainly trying to find a new job and possibly relocate myself anywhere other than where I am, but today I read some articles that require some additional insight that I just can’t withstand slapping against Simmons’ Android smugness.  I know TheFight already posted some Nokia based rants but I’m here to offer a more elegant rebuttal of Simmons’ understanding of the smartphone market and the introductory period of an OS.

I’m going to throw some average grade research at you guys because it’s easier to follow than drudging up some off the wall and impossible to access numbers.  So let’s rock some Wikipedia info.  I’ve used this page before but I’ll go ahead and give you the link for the Android page.  Now according to this the Android OS was acquired by Google in 2005 and by 2009 only had a 2.8% global marketshare.  Not all that awesome for an OS that has founding roots all the way back to 2003.  It took Google four years to get to 2.8%  Following a four year dicking around period, in Q3 of 2010 Android managed to get around 1/5th of the global.  So Simmons’ master of all smartphone OS’s took from 2003 to 2010 to establish itself as a major smartphone operating system.  Woo-freaking-hoo.

Android in its current state is pretty awesome, I will concede.  Especially after Google’s most recent attempts to be more like Windows Phone.  Honeycomb is a good move for them.  Check out that new marketplace.  A little too busy for my taste with the crazy number of pictures, random up and down scrolling with no indicator of which way things scroll, and a complete lack of ability to get third party app developers to conform to this organizational paradigm, but a definite nod to the unification that has been achieved through other mobile OS’s namely Windows Phone and IOS.

Now let’s compare some Windows Phone numbers.  In less than a year WinPho gained anywhere from 1-1.6% market share in the first year it was released.  Now I’m not saying this is amazing but it puts WinPho on track to more than double what Google has gained.  Maybe they will, maybe they won’t but it certainly isn’t a bad start.  Couple this with the article I wrote a while back and you can see that Microsoft is outpacing people left and right.  Now I know this is all hypothetical stuff and predictions about one smartphone’s traction compared to another’s, but there is one little caveat that I feel is extremely important to mention.

How many of you have paid 600.00$ for a phone?  Not too many, because why the hell would anyone do that when they could sign a two year agreement and get that shit for free.99$?  I can’t say I’ve ever forked over more than 100$ for a phone.  I’ve had a lot more phones than I’ve paid for because I am usually able to “convince” AT&T that there is something or other wrong with my phone.  Thank god for warranties.  Anyway, point is that few people ever buy phones when they don’t have upgrades.  With WinPho only being out for less than a year, that locks plenty of people out of the Windows Phone game until their coveted upgrade times.  Give it a good three to four years like Android, which it used to fumble around in the dark like mentally challenged turtle trying to hump a flower on its back.  It wasn’t until four years later when Android’s market share exploded like a prepubescent teen boy in a strip club.

Simmons
So I wonder how many of our dear readers are still impatiently waiting upgrades to hop on the WinPho boat, as well as how many of you have purchased phones outright?  My guess is a few and not many respectively.  Simmons may love his Android phone and right he should.  He’s at least got better taste than some of our fruit loving staff.  However, his overzealous loyalty tends to blind him to anything that doesn’t have the smell of Google splooge all over it.

 

 

31 COMMENTS

  1. Well said.

    Windows Phone hasn’t even had it’s first birthday yet and all these crazy Android fanboys are already calling out doom.

  2. lol.. Ok but under this logic than we should say windows phone was released in 2000 when Windows CE was first released so you have had 11 yrs to get to where you are now not 1yr.. Because comparing any 2003 android version to gingerbread is like comparing windows ce to windows phone… So just face it… MS dropped the ball with windows phone and its never going to recover above 3rd place.. I mean I use to love windows mobile but now days I’d rather have an Iphone than wp and thats sad..

  3. Matt thank you for bringing Brianna something she could agree with (I imagine she might be a sweet lady who helps people sometimes, probably smiles a healthy amount). She earned it, whatever it is you gave her (to her I imagine it feels like a refreshing dose of truth and reality, like Glenn Beck to Smith), after having to put up with me and my different crazy opinions.

    To take on your insightful point about it being premature like prepubescent ejaculation to declare Windows Phone DOA with your comparison to the Android launch, it’s tough for me to really field that effectively because Microsoft kept and continues to keep their embarrassing sales data secret, whereas Google’s open about it.

    But I can tell you this without checking Wikipedia, this far in Android’s growth into the market did not become horizontal as Microsoft’s has been for months. It’s been completely flat since April, and the months leading into April it was essentially flat. Instead, Google took the parabolic route. But maybe you should google images a chart on that just in case I’m full of shit especially when I admit to blind speculation. Lots of talk in our world about the platform, but absolutely no growth in fucking market share, zero. Zero!

    “Oh but Simmons, yada yada no devices in a while herp derp” you say as if that’s some excuse? Well why haven’t there been any devices? Because what? Something about the people in charge not talking about it, something about consumers being completely stupid? Yeah? That didn’t stop Android (or Apple, obviously).

    Just out of curiosity Matt, since you find this performance acceptable given the platform’s youth, what would make you change your tune? It’s a good question considering that it really couldn’t be any worse than it is, and Microsoft has a lot more resources to throw at this compared to what Google had and not only that, Microsoft’s had opportunity to learn from Microsoft’s and Google’s and RIM’s mistakes while taking lots of notes on what they got right. Yet they still aren’t moving these phones. They had Ryan Seacrest going nuts about it, they got a New York Times app and something else on the same day, looking brighter, nope, forecast still showing a high of fail with a 0% swag index.

    Nokia launching even a slew of Windows Phone devices will prove to be nothing but a dead cat bounce at best. Murali thinks the Nokia See Doo launch will bring Nokia back into the lead, you seem to be taking a more moderate position, but on the list of things the world needs, another mobile platform, no matter how fruity the tiles and how many hundreds of features some fruity update gave it with the sockets or how smooth it runs on 800mhz chips, is not present. No interest. Good luck buying that interest with marketing, unless you just give the phones out with free unlimited contracts, which actually is not necessarily a stupid idea if you really want to get this thing off the ground. That and putting it on the best hardware, that would have been helpful, whether it needs it or not.

    Silver lining, since Microsoft purports to have full control over whether or not any Android device can be sold, if the patents are legit, they could simply shut Android down. That might help Windows Phone sales a little, I’d hope at least. Or they could collect their $15 a copy straight from Google if they had the balls/grounds to sue them instead of just the guys who can’t defend themselves and make a respectable $10m a day. Maybe they could offer the fruity tile source code and make Android destroy Apple, then that’s what, several billion a year?

    You people seem to want Microsoft to do well, why not brainstorm better ways to milk Barnes & Nobel? That would be time better spent on your part if you want to help Microsoft and not just get vanity sales data for your telephone. Who the hell do they think they are, refusing to sign the secret papers? “Pay up!” as I keep reading on WMPU. Start with helping Microsoft muscle B&N into a licensing settlement, then move on to bitch slapping the DoJ for stealing the patents Microsoft acquired for anticompetitive purposes. Obviously Google bought the feds off and gave them free Google TVs.

  4. Yup I’m one of them that’s waitin for my contract to end then I’ll surely upgrade to WP7 and love it,I’m waiting on a Nokia Mango phone device though. So I think your correct with what you say about this guy Doug he seems to be blinded with his overly zealous loyalty to Google and Andriod. Over all I couldnt czreless what he thinks or say of it,,his hate for Microsoft and WP7 does nothing to stear me away from what I want. I also convince my sister to get a WP7 device for her upgrade and she loves it now. All the hate the guy was givin her in the att store I told him about the phone which he knew nothing about but he was hating on it,,anyways good article..

  5. Not to interrupt but FOXLEGEND, if it’s software reviews praising Windows Phone you’re after, I wrote a better one with an unusually fresh perspective too.

    I never ever, ever said that Windows Phone is a lousy platform.

  6. @Doug Simmons: Yea I read your articles and I’m not looking for software praising windows phone,,I kno exactly wat i need to know about that. But you have a serious hate towards Ms n their product that it seems like Google is paying you for the loyalty. But anyways I never said you say WP7 was lousy,,I just say you have a strong hate for ms or anything thats not Google it seems by the way..

  7. I have admiration for Windows Phone (don’t care for Sharepoint and Excel, but I can see why others would need those) and I have sympathy for the people in the trenches behind Windows Phone. Google hasn’t given me anything other than impressive stuff, but not money — whereas Microsoft has given me both paper wealth gains stemming from the nineties and a steady dose of dividends. I still host a windows mobile resource site. No one bought my loyalty, no one’s blinding me. I just sort of stick out here, you know?

    I think Windows Phone has a very bleak future which I’ve said from the beginning. I think Microsoft’s legal behavior is very ugly and it bothers me a lot. It also bothers me that it doesn’t seem to bother any of you that, while you want Windows Phone to plant its flag at the top and seem quite fond of Microsoft, their moneymaker by, what, a dozen-fold, who knows how much astronomically more is Android. While I’m at it, I’ll go a step further and say Microsoft would be worse off if Android had never happened (again, assuming these bullshit patents are totally legit, or almost legit enough to keep shaking down OEMs at the present rate).

  8. @Chris – I didn’t compare Androids market share or growth during its non-google owned days. My comparison of their market share begins fresh when each company gains control of/releases said product. What you’re looking at are windows mobile numbers, which is still being sold and exists now. We could throw in windows mobile market share if you want but that would increase the ratio of microsofts favor with the new OS as compared to google, although not on a similar time line. As far as it being able to be directly compared it’s not even close to the same OS anyway. I just wouldn’t bother or try and weasel in poor research. You guys are way too sharp for me to bother fudging numbers.

  9. And to all you fellas tuning in from tide*.microsoft.com hosts, how about chiming in? I realize almost half of you are using Google Reader but I rigged that up for you so you can read the comments and drop in a comment. I promise not to reveal your IP or email or whatever, just could use another set of eyes on this subject, particularly yours, especially if it could shut me up because this is really costing me a lot of time, going on and on like this, and I’m getting on everyone’s nerves.

  10. It does bother me to see how MS is shaking down these OEM’s for patent infrigment when they should just go stright for Google instead, Google knows exactly what they were doing when they worked on Andriod and know they were infringing on dozens or more of patent from ms n others, so lets not pretent we don’t know this. Google taking lots of patents and leaves their OEM’s to hang for their wrong doing,it’s just bullshit how MS goes after the same OEM’s that are making smartphones for their WP7 platforms as well, shame on them for that shit..

  11. Doug, why do you keep forcasting this bleak future. Have youy put a WP7 phone and and Android phone in front of anyone and they said hey I like this better then that? I cant use WP7? I dont like Wp7? I bet you have not. Again the diffrence is devices, cost and advertising. All of which are solvable problems. Any other logical reason you can give as to why the future is so bleak? Is there anything Android can do for normal people that WP cant do?

  12. Actually, i think you feel like Android\Google is an unstoppable brand. Googe is not Apple and is getting considerable backlash as of late.

  13. This article uses absolutely no logic. You can’t compare one company first attempt in the market with a company who has been in the market for over a decade. Doug is right, you must use windows CE if you use that crazy logic.

    You can add windows mobile and windows phone market share together and its still laughable. All these devices from all these great companies, and they still can’t sell?

    Yeah the OS is beautiful, looks pretty, and smooth. To me, but all of my friends call my phone ugly, and blocky.

  14. rob: Honestly, this time at least, because that Google letter and Microsoft’s distracting and mostly irrelevant response (albeit catchy), and Murali’s one worded response to it as being ridiculous, then a journey to WMPU and several other blogs, seeing people pile up on Google going on about how Microsoft has the right to enforce their patents (even though they are probably totally unfamiliar with the actual patents in play and probably that things like predatory patent misuse, in addition to very dick, is illegal) really fired me up, just like it fired all those people up, but in the opposite direction.

    The rant was, as categorized, a rant. I got emotional, starting in David K’s initial thread where I wrote several tl;dr comments in a row and then in my head said fuck this I’m pumping out an article, but having reread it the next day after having gotten some sleep, it struck me as not being over the top enough to regret having written it.

    If it’s of any worth, sometimes I’m not that extreme with hatred toward Microsoft.

    And yet again, I am absolutely impressed with WP (someone let me use their phone for a week) and I can fully appreciate why these articles irritate you, but I’m not entirely without concern for you and your people. For instance, once that article exceeded fifty comments or so, I curbed my response frequency so as not to bother too many people with email notifications over trivial posts. That’s thoughtful right there.

  15. rob: Another thing you may not be aware of, one of the chief reasons I bailed out of WinMo in favor of Android, sacrificing my beloved hard keyboard along the way for the Nexus One, was to contribute to an effort to diversify the site’s content, to dilute further from being a Microsoft-only site, as I and the other guys were, and I believe still are, in agreement that that would be beneficial. Now you may be underwhelmed about how I’ve gone about trying to inflate our Android base, but damnit I’m trying, cut me some slack.

    And if you think you could do better, or even do anything at all, either with Android or any other platform including WinPho or even with something completely unrelated to technology, please advise and I’ll cook you up an account write now. I like your style. You’re not afraid to question my methods and that takes balls, the kind of balls that yields good OC.

    Any interest?

  16. @Doug – That is one of my favorite pieces by you. Read through that laughing out loud while my ex-gf drug me around to every overpriced retail store in NYC. Of course that was on my Fuze, which I still have to take to the beach. WinMo just won’t die.

  17. @Matt Anderson, I’m not waiting for an upgrade as such, as I have a sim only contract and I get my phones without contract. Like others, I am waiting for the official NL Windows Phone launch in my country, the NL language support, the WP related services, the new devices and Mango.

    In fact, Windows Phone took 2nd place (15,4%) in a recent Dutch poll about the OS for our next smartphone purchase. Way behind Android (40,1%), but just in front of the rest, including iOS (14,6%), MeeGo (13,2%) and Symbian (7,8%). Even though this doesn’t represent the general smartphone prospects, not a bad sign. And Windows Phone hasn’t even been launched properly over here.

    http://www.mobilecowboys.nl/nieuws/14870

  18. I’ve heard the number of daily activations that android has and it makes me wonder how many are actually NEW, and how many are activations of replacement devices for broken, or messed up devices

  19. @kato – These OS’s have absolutely nothing to do with one another. I mention the difference between the two numbers as a weak estimation for future growth but a good way to compare its introductory period. My real point is about upgrades though. Don’t discount the weight of hardware discounts on device sales. Want more proof? Just ask the original nexus and look at its sales numbers. That speaks far louder than market share. Market share will shake out over the next two years. Android didn’t do a damn thing for anyone until it was in googles stable for more than four years. If winpho fails after four years then we can have this conversation again and I’ll admit I was wrong. Until then it’s a waiting game and simply saying something is illogical doesn’t make it so. Bring some real “logical” points to refute my estimations instead of repeating some someone four comments up already said.

  20. I am really considering a change in my phone OS in the next 6 months and am really considering android ( on the iPhone now). The main reason I won’t consider WP7 is app price. Why isn’t that mentioned more? Has ms started dropping the price of their apps? Price sells it for me especially since I have already spent a decent amount at the apple store (close to $75). Most of the stuff I could get for free or atleast the same price in the android market. I cannot speak though for the price at MS store.

  21. @ant_129 – A major selling point of the OS is the integrated functionality versus the need for many applications. Most apps are very reasonably priced. Always depends on the individual app though.

  22. Yeah, I could see that as being somewhat useful but I use plenty of apps that would not be integrated, at least I don’t think they would. Examples include, GPS navigation, workout logger, remote keyboard and mouse for computer, wake on lan app, subsonic streamer and music cacher, remote IP cam viewer. And the huge selling point is if I switch to Android, I know I can find most of those apps for free. Quality gaming apps might suffer a little bit on the android compared to the iphone but I don’t have much time for them anyway. Also I really really want something like Tasker for my next phone, I know apple will never allow and I don’t think MS will either. I am currently jailbroken and will miss my quick settings toggler when I do upgrade to iOS 5, another feature I am sure I can find easily for Android.

  23. “Android in its current state is pretty awesome”

    Android doesn’t come within a million miles of being pretty awesome. There are some pretty awesome features, but as a whole the entire OS is a frickin’ mess. I know because it was my first smart phone. It’s an ugly, unintuitive, laggy, fragmented mess with a horribly confusing and atrocious market, in spite of their miserable attempt to ape Microsoft’s metro design. Features that should be simple to use are often buried under layers and apps. There’s little integration compared to WP and iOS. The battery life sucks, and it’s still un-optimized. Not to mention the fact that it violates patents of numerous other companies.

    The entire thing is a mess. Yes, it’s customizable, but that’s incredibly overrated if the OS is a pain in the ass from a user standpoint, and it is compared to the competition.

    I know Doug will throw up some 5,000 word rant. So be it. I won’t read it.

  24. Joe: Would you say Android tends to get better significantly faster or slower than Windows Phone?

    Too long?

  25. Matt then why was windows renamed windows phone? Why is now windows phone 6.5, and Windows Phone 6.5.x?

    Why didn’t you mention the iPhone sales?
    Why didn’t you mention Bada sales?

    Maybe because their introductory sales far
    exceed Windows Phone 7?

    Your article is illogical, Microsoft isn’t new to this market so stop trying to give them excuses.

  26. I didn’t mention them because I was too lazy to do the research. If you’d like I can go out and do that. It was a comparative essay to directly counter one of Doug’s pieces and thus an android comparison. Just because an article doesn’t meet your requirements for scope of research. Or if you’d like to make a full and logical rebuttal, we can get you set up with an account and you can go all out with visual aids instead of pictures from cancelled cartoons.

  27. @Doug – I’m waiting for something convincing to do so. I’ll be the first to admit when my predictions are wrong, but unfortunately I don’t normally make predictions. I look at what has happened and compare that to what has happened before it. I’m not saying WinPho will be number one and never have. Just saying that it’s possible. It has the software potential to be liked and useful mobile OS. My only prediction I’ve made here is that market share for MS would go up some after a two year incubation period because of the cycle of mobile upgrades. Never how much because I honestly don’t know. MS is having major problems with carrier employees hating on devices they don’t understand or use. This is why Android’s market share on AT&T was so low for so long. That and a terrible selection of Android hardware. All the employees knew for a long time was Iphone and that’s what they recommended because it was an easy recommendation to make. Showing someone a new way, regardless of the quality of the solution, is much harder to do than to roll with someone’s presuppositions. I’ve never not liked Android though, and even strongly considered getting the Samsung Captivate, but was turned off by GPS issues during its early release. I’ve been down that road with Samsung before. I still use Android frequently in tablet and phone form with my room mates devices. I would have a lot of fun customizing the phone to my exact needs, but Windows Phone offers me some things I value more. Do I care if it’s wildly succesful? Honestly, not at all. I like being against the grain anyway. So you guys have fun with Android, and if my ship sinks entirely (I doubt it will, at least not anytime in the next three years) I’ll be on Android, because even the fleeting thought of owning an Apple product makes me physically sick.

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