MobilityLeaks: Place Your Bets You Fairies!
On 5/4/2011 8:24 PM, Doug Simmons wrote:
Now that I’ve used a Windows Phone and therefore have the right to pretend to care about this stuff, I’m just curious where you all weigh on a little something. By when will Mango, which by all accounts is the impending messiah of WP, be running on at least two thirds of all Windows Phones actively used by consumers globally?
Example responses: Later this year (lol), mid next year, end of 2012, 2013, later than that, or, my favorite, never.
Optimists, please note if you’re willing to put money where your bullshit is. Hell, I’ll even let you factor out "Walshied" devices from the pool.
If you ask me they should just call the whole thing off. WP is so sweet the way it is.
Suckers.
Jim Szymanski:
Sell through on new devices-Oct/Nov. Released to unbranded devices-Nov/Dec. Rollout to branded devices-Jan/Mar. AT&T devices-Mar/Apr. No bets. May need the cash to buy a Nokia in November.
Chris Leiter:
I’m willing to bet that it’s official release date announcement going to be squarely poised against the release of iOS 5.
Sent from my iPad 2
David K:
I think October is the real over/under date. They learned from this rollout and they won’t let it get fucked up again. But I think October is the one year anniversary and I think that’s their goal. That is their infamous ‘holiday’ season.
The Fight:
I say Feb of 2012. Around mobile world conference 2012.
Murani Lewis:
$50 on by end of 2011. What, you thought I was scared? Grew up around and playing card sharks.
Doug Simmons:
Sold Murani, we have a wager. Fifty bucks on 2/3rds of active WP devices by year’s end.
May you not lose by such an embarrassing degree as David K did (he lost to me like a little naive pussy ass Microsoft teet-suckling bitch).
[poll id="103"]
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About The Author
Doug Simmons
Biographical info.. hmm. I have a history of not being able to strike the balance between what is "safe" to put into these forms and what is, in my mind at least, funny. Can't do it.
I am hoping for October but added a couple months for carrier/oem
nonsense.
And they call me a delusional fanboy.
You queen.
Queen? Oh yeah you mean I embody Queen’s “We are the Champions of the World?”. Thanks for the compliments but like the song says I’ve got no time for losers you pansy!
Did I say queen? I meant poofter.
Make sure you set aside that fifty along with a sense of self worth because I’ll be taking some of that too. Poofter.
Dammit! Of course I hope to get the Mango as fast as possible…. but I’m sure that the “correct” answer is No. Dammit…
Eh, Q1 2012.
D-Money, willing to go $20 deeper on that with you.
Actually Murani may have something here. While I still believe only a few existing devices will get Mango by year end, I do expect a media blitz in the October/November timeframe which could push sales of Mango devices significantly. So assuming 4M existing sales by October 1, new sales of 2.6M (plus some updated devices) in the last 4 months would do it. Still a lot of speculation but certainly feasible.
do we get to hear when simmons honestly thinks mango will roll out?
Define roll out.
The first hit to this site that indicates in its user agent that it’s a Mango phone somehow, 7.5 or whatever? Or being present on 2/3rds of the devices that access Microsoft’s Marketplace over the course of a month for the first time which is how Google does it?
FYI the first WP7 hit to our site was on July 15th though it did not report any device name. Could have been an emulator, wasn’t on a cellular network. The second hit was on the same day, an LG GW910 on AT&T.
The third came from a microsoft.com host a bit later, an Asus E600.
why dont you give us both dates? when do you think it will roll out to 2.3rds of devices and when do you think you will see the first 7.5 or whatever hit?
$50 – Jan 2012.
@Murani Lewis: That’s my rationale. AT&T could make this sink or swim…
@Doug Simmons: Doug, I’ll take that.