MobilityLeaks: Windows Phone Marketshare Predictions

Quite often we, the staff writers, at Mobility Digest talk amongst ourselves on a hot-button topic. Less often we decide to let the world in on our fun. Today’s edition of MobilityLeaks we deal with predictions of what Windows Phone market share will be by the end of the 1st quarter of 2013. Since I started the topic I thought it’d only be fair for me to do the work of bringing the conversation public. We have the standard back & forth, mixed with a healthy dose of hilarious work avoidance and enough mentions of tech relics to satisfy most people’s cravings. Enjoy!

Murani: As days pass by we get a clearer picture if what devices are going to what carrier, sans Samsung. So what are you expecting the Windows Phone market share to be say end of 1st quarter next year? Its currently close to 4% and I’m glad to see good options on 3 of the 4 largest carriers in the U.S. and internationally it seems to be more interest and carrier support.

Personally, I’m going with 8% by end of 1st quarter but it’ll continue to grow throughout the year. They’ll be a spring refresh of devices so even more great hardware to push. Having the HTC 8X, Nokia 822 and hopefully the Samsung ATIV S on Verizon would go a long way. If Samsung brings the ATIV S to Verizon I can see them pushing that as their flagship windows phone and I’d bump my prediction to 10%.

David K: Its all speculation until we know carrier mix but I think we’re neglecting what I think is the largest sales base – China and other Asian markets. We think sales in the US matter. They do but a lot of that is mind share. China has more activations per day. The market loves high end but because of the economics the lower priced phones will be the sales leaders. So the cheap Nokia 7.8 phones may outsell the flagship 920. We can be snobs and think the WVGA 1ghz phones are garbage. There also cheap and when you are buying unsubsidized they’re very relevant. The US model doesn’t apply. The fact that these inexpensive phones can perform like high end phones (thanks to the WP optimization) is what may matter more for global share.

2 Bunny: My guess is that Android and Apple will increase, and BlackBerry will slowly fill the shrinking void that Microsoft left.

Ram:

2 Bunny

>>BlackBerry will slowly fill the shrinking void that Microsoft left.

I think you need an appointment with your doctor. I don’t what Ballmer might have done something to you, but in every email you wish for MSFT death directly or indirectly. Something is causing you to spread FUD. /peace

MartiM: What are you smoking? Microsoft may stay in single-digits for another year, but the only way they get out is if they give up. Unless a miracle occurs, BB is on life support. That, and David’s right: the US is not the be-all & end-all. Asia will be an important market to watch for the big picture.

Ram: Marti, Yes, I don’t know why some of the Linux Lunatics that support evil corporation think US is the be all, when China and India are bigger markets and under explored than USA.

David K: Anyone want to post this? I’m busy setting records in fruit ninja kinect 🙂

MartiM: Haha! D**n, I need a Kinect!!
I’m nursing a tummy bug today. 🙁

MartiM: Don’t get me wrong – I’d like to see 3 minimum, 4-5 better, companies competing in the market. BB just might linger, especially outside the West. Wasn’t it Saudi Arabia and India (?) that made them set up their networks so the governments could keep tabs on what the populace was doing, a few years ago? In places where that is set up, it might stick around, simply because the infrastructure is there. Would Google, MS, or Apple allow that? Didn’t Google make tons of concessions to China in order to get into that growing market for the browser? I’m sure money still talks louder than politics.

I wish Symbian hadn’t fizzled. One of my first PDAs was a Psion Revo 5 & it was a snappy little machine. Way better than my little Palm :). My parents both have (still) Nokia Communicators. My dad loves them so much, he bought them online from Hong Kong when they needed to replace their last ones. My mother’s has a QWERTY keyboard, my dad’s looks like a French-style one? And wasn’t Symbian doing okay in Europe?

2 Bunny: Lol it sometimes seems like that because there just seems to be a large group who thinks that the next "Mobile OS" and the sad looking Windows 8 that MS releases will be some kind of lifesaver for them in both markets. In reality, most people will continue to run Windows 7 (similar to when Vista came out) and keep using BlackBerry, IOS, and Android. Microsoft has a world of success and "things done right" with the Xbox 360, but that’s about the only thing they’re doing right in my eyes. Can you really see another mobile and a radically different desktop just fixing the problem?

Matt A: Well what do you think would fix this then? You tell us what you think ms should do since everything they are doing is wrong to you.

Ram:

2 Bunny
Here you go, your cult leader expressed his opinions about Surface, and his response and expressions show FUD, eventhough he is claiming the other side, http://allthingsd.com/20121010/live-from-new-york-walt-mossberg-kara-swisher-interview-eric-schmidt/

There you have it faithful readers. The latest installment of MobilityLeaks. Excellent points raised about China and the international market being just as important if not more important and the opportunity that exists. Nokia did sell 10 times as many Lumia devices internationally than in the United States. With the HTC getting on so many carriers, Samsung sure to have the ATIV S broadly distributed and the flagship Nokia Lumia 920 going toe to toe with anything Android and Apple has to offer is the time right for a significant market share jump? Let us know what you think by dropping a comment below. I think we’ll see Windows Phone reach double digit marketshare and that was without counting international adoption. Maybe I’m being too conservative.