MobilityLeaks: He Don’t Know Shit from Shinola”
On 4/22/2011 9:07 PM, Jimski wrote:
Interesting that the 3,000 registered users of this app represent 77 different countries/regions. Pretty amazing based on the small sample size that probably works out to 0.1% of total WP7 users.
Doug Simmons:
First of all Gramps without looking at anything 3m sounds a bit steep to me, even worldwide. But even if just enough people finally bought one for you to look at some map mashup and think "Well I’ll be gosh darned, whatever (100 / 0.1) * 3000 equals, it feels like we’ve hit seven digits in only several months, but damnit I think I broke my hip again," so what?
Doug Smith:
Repect yer elders ya young disrespectful whipper snapper!
Doug Simmons
I would but he don’t know shit from Shinola. He probably doesn’t even know what Shinola is even though he was too old to serve in Korea.
Here’s some real data old timer. While you’ll gobble up any WP sales data from any whacky "analyst" (provided you don’t have to chew it), I go by Facebook scraping data of the built-in client and here’s what it reveals:
Windows Phone sales have slumped to their low. In terms of Facebook usage growth rate (monthly average users divided by days), their peak was mid February at almost seven thousand more users over the trailing month (wonder why..). As of last Monday, under two thousand having steadily declined since, or a 0.70% bump in the base versus 2.18% mid February. The only thing that’s steady about its sales performance is that it continues to head toward zero.
I know a thousand may strike you as a big sum of anything, like points in a bingo competition, but to put that into perspective for you Android’s change in monthly active Facebook-using users (daily average) leading up to last Monday? About 1.1m, or 49.47% relative to the prior month.
Capiche Jim?
Chris Leiter:
Whoa
Whoa.
Chris Leiter:
Some food for that thought : http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-20055615-266.html
The iPhone is 60% of all smartphone sale in att last quarter. Blackberry, android and wp7 are grouped into the remaining 40%
It’s safe to assume that android made up anywhere from 25-30% of that remainder, and that blackberry had the majority of the remaining 10-15%. if 60% is 3.6 million of 5.5million smartphones sold, that doesn’t leave as many wp7 sales, but certainly allows for close to 2m, MAYBE 3m in total since launch.
Yet, 80,000 people per day are buying an iPhone…..
Sent from my iPad 2
Doug Simmons:
Yeah because whatever AT&T decides to push is a perfect indicator of what the world wants, those guys have a history of having their shit together to the point where when the customers of a company they’re buying out finds out AT&T’s trying to buy them they get extraordinarily pissed off. Great, AT&T.
Well, according to the same data iPhones outnumber Androids almost two to one worldwide. However Androids have been outselling iPhones since February, lately by about 25% in spite of your CNET AT&T bullshit. Android for the win. Say your prayers Nokia, look what you hitched your wagon to.
Patrick:
Who pissed off Simmons today?
Jimski:
Latest word on the street is about 2.5M, so I rounded up a bit. But as usual you changed the subject to suit your needs. My comment referred to the cross section of users based on a very small (ok 1% if you think there are only really 300K in the wild) sampling.
One thing I have learned sonny boy is patience, and I got a Ulysses that says you will own a Windows Phone by 2014. Who wants to hold it. At 55 you never know, I might not be around by then. On the other hand, with your rants an MS Fanboy might whack you one day, so I want to make sure I am covered.
Sent from my phone
Doug Simmons:
I see you’ve busted out your Yahoo account Jim. Don’t move too far away from the AOL home, you might get lost and not remember where you came from and end up just sort of wandering into other people’s homes, then the cops will have to pick you up and waste time trying to figure out where you belong.
Jimski:
Actually that data is based on the Facebook app that every blogger say sucks. I wouldn’t know as I never use it. But the built-in Facebook integration is showing 900K average users per month. But hey, I am not gonna argue with your distorted stats.
Sent from my phone
Doug Simmons
Distorted data? The reason I use this data is because it is the least distorted of anything I’ve found and doesn’t come from anyone I should look at much more skeptically. And there are multiple Facebook clients for other platforms including Android, I’m guessing iPhones too — I’m just going with the built in standard issue to keep things constant and measurable.
How exactly does your take on bloggers’ opinions of the built-in Facebook client make using the number new people over a month using the service through that program not a good metric of its sales?
If I said "Admob said this and that about Windows Phone" and you said "You little whippersnapper, Admob is owned by Google!" then you might almost have a point whereas here you just have hair growing out of your ears and a dollop of mucous growing between your nostrils — which are also hairy.
Doug Smith:
Actually I said whipper snapper.
Sent from my iPhone 4
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Doug Simmons
Biographical info.. hmm. I have a history of not being able to strike the balance between what is "safe" to put into these forms and what is, in my mind at least, funny. Can't do it.
For the record, the stuff I linked to only talked to AT&T sales, not worldwide.
Simmons, why the aggressive dismissal of WP7? Starting to sound like an iphoner crapping on android users before android gave apple anything to worry about. Yes Android is taking the world by storm but does that mean windows phone growth shouldn’t be noted? I don’t give two sticks what Android does I’m too busy enjoying my experience using my Surround.
I did note them in that they continue to decelerate. Which is not what snowballs that eventually grow large enough to take things by storm do. I also noted that three million sounds a little high, Jim conceded that he rounded up with what I’m guessing was some pretty fuzzy math.
Hey, Jim started it with his bragging. I even gave him a window to hop out of this whole thing when I asked him so what. But then everyone ganged up on me for treating him as I would a young moron. Bunch of ageists, the lot of you.
Ah Simmons, your too quick for me. My last comment:
Ok, you win this round. Just checked the link the dumb ass posted and it goes to a Facebook page called Windows Phone app, which is listed as a game (?). Don’t know WTF it is but it does have 903,650 monthly active users, but who knows where the users come from. So the info is bogus and I apologize for bringing it into the picture.
With that said, only the integrated Facebook feature of WP could show any kind of reasonable data as many users don’t bother with the Facebook app. Also, there are a good number of users on 200-500MB plans who turn off all FB auto stuff for fear of downloading too much shit and going over their monthly limit. Ads are probably a better, but not exact, indicator. But none of this matters to me cause I like my phone and don’t really give a shit what anyone else thinks.
BTW, I still think that an app (…I’m a WP7) that has only been in Marketplace for five days with 3,000+ registered users (actually 3,156 right now), which represents somewhere between .1 and 1% of all WP7 phones, has logins from 77 different countries/regions.
At absolute worst the data is solid relative to itself over time, like growth of usage of a popular smart phone service, common among people give or take across phone platforms. Even you use Facebook, judging by what you know about all that auto stuff.
So because carriers have different plans than others you’re telling me that you’d put more stock in statistics reported by an ad site? Not just counting heads here, how many people own what, but growth, trends.
And Jim, the trend is my friend. Whereas you, you just have your “I’m running WP!” app, loneliness and despair.
I’d love to watch you try to pitch a better way to assemble trustworthy and reliable information than what this man came up with. So far we’ve got use some company that distributes ads and counts impressions and some number of something or other you found on your app market.
You know who I bet you’d agree with? The two outfits that said WP7 will go from half a percent to over 25 in the next four years. Sounds about right, doesn’t it.
I tried to include numbers from outfits somewhat widely-regarded as reputable like comScore but WP adoption is so low it’s still identified only as “other” in their data. But maybe you could bing something for me.
My site batteryboss.org which I haven’t updated in months, just a single page with a table on it, has pulled in visitors from 84+ countries since the first of the month and that’s without this site, WMPU and whoever else screaming at their audience to fire it up. Look, I’m not even hyperlinking it here, ducking an opportunity to attract maybe another country. That is a small number, 77, when talking about countries doing a certain niche thing on the Internet.
As noted, I don’t really care if Microsoft’s market share grows from 0.4% to 25%, or stays at 0.4% forever. As long as Microsoft continues to build it, and it works for me, I will buy it. Not challenging any of your numbers. Not trying to highlight the success or failure of an app either. Only pointing out that the diversity was interesting, but admittedly anecdotal.
Short of Microsoft providing sales numbers, I don’t know what the best measuring tool is for market penetration. Don’t even know how the ad info is aggregated and frankly I don’t care. Numbers don’t impact my purchasing decision one way or the other.
Also not trying to bash any platform or defends one’s superiority over another. Even though I have played around with webOS, iOS and Android devices before, I am certainly not qualified to comment or recommend. It’s a free country, so people can use whatever phone they like and get on with their life.
Yeah bullshit Jim, you don’t care if it falls to .4% (it’s actually slightly higher but whatever), these things don’t matter to you — then why did you grab the program, write about it, send us over a dozen emails about it, extrapolate this over a thousand already that, why did you do that, to tell an anecdote about diversity?
Hey Jim, I just thought of a great app for you to write for WP. It’s called “Get My Affairs in Order.” I’m not sure what its function would be exactly (guessing you’d have a better understanding of that) but if there are more like you it could be a hit.
Better start programming, clock is ticking old fella.
Thanks for that detail and impressive, BTW. But an app/or website that has only been up for 5 days (as of yesterday), and on a platform with limited language support, limited Marketplace access, and only two mobility site article links, managed to not only get users from 77 different countries/regions to visit, but also register, with the vast majority handing over some limited location information. While not earth shattering, even you have to admit that’s not too bad.
My boring old site, not unlike you, is collecting dust. Someone comes up with an idea that’s partially catchy because of how unpopular the platform is constantly accused of being, it’s a snappy catchy idea, then people like you start banging out emails and stories, soon it’s on thousands of web pages plus it’s probably being presented brightly, the smash hit app until people started talking about Photosynth, the app that should have been but turned out not to be, I’m guessing, in the market, that eighty countries are somehow tied to it is only meaningful in the sense that it shows, contrary to your assertions, that you don’t know shit about this sort of data.
At the end of the day people are buying WP7s. The user satisfaction of those who purchase the phones is quite high. Just got a report from a co-worker that her sister bought the HTC Arrive from Sprint and said its the best phone ever and that she loves it. Lets be candid and establish a few things shall we.
1) Although AT&T was the “premiere” launch partner they at best gave WP7 a lukewarm in-store marketing push. We heard of plenty of stories where users went in and were intentionally dissuaded from purchasing a Windows Phone. Most were simply due to ignorance and some due to pushing their own preferences without giving Windows Phone a chance. I remember when the iPhone launched and workers were darn near reprimanded for not mentioning the iPhone.
2) Yes, Microsoft seriously mishandled the launch. Supply shortages, lack of in-store push, poorly trained partners, you name it and the guys at Redmond probably failed at it.
3) Android Assault-Its not just Windows Phone who is falling victim to Android right now. Apple, RIM, Palm, you name it has been hit hard by the Android Assault. Nobody is trying to be the “premium” android brand they just want to have premium sales. If that means selling at “give away” pricing then thats just what that means. Even Apple had to concede to sell the 3Gs at $49 to boost their quarter sales. Yes Apple, i’m not fooled a bit by how many iphones were sold, a healthy number of the 3.2 million AT&T iphones were in fact 3GS’s after the price drop.
4)Microsoft & Nokia partnership is a wildcard. Done right and worldwide marketshare will soar and soar quickly. Done wrong and both are in serious trouble. Considering the amount of resources and apparent speed they are working to get Nokia to market indicates they are aware they are in a serious uphill battle.
5) Metro-People generally love the UI concept. When Mango hits & all of Nokia’s intellectual property is integrated the platform will be awesome. Look for Metro inspired tablets in 2012 to take off and people will love the integration their phones have with the tablets.
How is it that Windows Phone, versus every other platform, got such a weak reception by the carriers when it’s the platform of greatness brought to us by the behemoth? They don’t even take it seriously, their own company, the Bing guys. Why is that? I get that it’s great and everything, but you’re saying because of your coworkers again and their sisters, because you heard that someone got reprimanded …
You believe there is no race to make premium Android hardware. You’re the one with the platform that as an apparent result of hooking up with Nokia who buy the way isn’t fully divorcing themselves of Symbian, MeeGo or Series 40, why, because they’ve got most of their hands in the low/mid-end phone market. So Microsoft hooks up with them, we’re already seeing a low/mid-end influence in the grand new specs for your devices of the future, in the process they repel the higher end OEMs from WP and toward Android, and you’re telling me that with Android there’s no high end in Android? Well what the hell are the two phones to my right? Two different brands, two awesome phones, bunch of other awesome phones from both companies but because HTC also made the Aria that makes Android fail some sort of test of exclusivity?
If your 4) could go either way, especially if it hinges on being done right when you go on and on about this company and that company failed to do everything right hence the flop, why are you including that? And hasn’t Microsoft demonstrated for over a decade that they do nothing but fail to get uphill even before it was a hill?
“When Mango hits.” Yeah, I was thinking the other day how it’s funny how you yap and yap about how even on an 800MHz phone WP is so fast you don’t have to wait for any lag, yet all you know how to do is wait and wait and wait (for WP7 to hit, for NoDo which STILL isn’t halfway out, now for Mango and finally relevance). What’s the rush?
At the end of the day fewer and fewer people are buying WP7s. More smartphones are being bought, most at an accelerating rate, meanwhile WP7 is hovering toward attrition.
From reading their boards I get the impression that the Symbian developers weren’t delighted by WP. Now I’m reading that they’re not abandoning Symbian. They already have plans not to do that. And a lot of the Symbian developers, you can bet your last dollar have iPhone and Android prospects that they’re already gearing up for.
But wasn’t Android once budding like WP, and now look? Right, as if WP will be committing an “assault” someday. Nokia will deliver a dead cat bounce and that’s about it.
By the way:
Shinola is a brand of wax shoe polish that was available in the early- to mid-20th century. The original trademark was filed in 1929 by 2-in-1 Shinola-Bixby … Thanks for that tidbit. Learned something new today.
Then again:
Shinola, Vol. 1 is the tenth studio album by the band Ween. Released by Chocodog on July 19, 2005, Shinola is a collection of odds and ends that the band put together. Thanks again. Streaming it now with my Zune Pass. Not bad.
What decent smartphone OS is running on low/mid end hardware? Android and thats it. Its not particularly hard for Symbian and blackberry phones to get smacked by Android. I said premium brand not premium hardware. Of course OEMs are throwing Android on the the latest and greatest hardware. By premium brand I mean there are tons of high fashion brands that would never deal with low/mid tier price points but somehow the smartphone OEMs are going the “cheap” route in trying to combat Apple’s dominance in the industry.
I haven’t heard anyone yet say how they absolutely love their Android user experience. Yes i’ve heard people who have rooted and tweaked their phones to optimize the experience but out of box is experience is mundane.
Oh, and there doesn’t need to be an overwhelming migration of Symbian developers. As the install base grows the current devs will just have a greater chance to substantially increase their earnings. As a developer they are just throwing a hissy fit because they have abandonment issues like alot of the Windows Mobile power users did when Windows Phone 7 was announced. Heck, i’m already working on proof of concepts for several apps in preperation. Less competition the better for my apps to get discovered and downloaded and that makes me a happy man.
Shit Murani, you didn’t say “price points”? Oh well, here we go again.
Excuse me but Microsoft just pushed back at least one major spec down from the gigahertz level, back to the Tilt2 domain, 20% slower to suit Nokia. Right now you and I have, platforms forgotten, more or less the same phone. Next generation, how sure are you that the companies in the business of making some top shelf phones will still be making Windows Phones? Seems to me they learned their lesson the hard way and Nokia just put the nail in the coffin for them. Your minimum specs go down over time. Soon you will have a lot of phones which support your platform that are slower than the phone you have now, that we know. Maybe Samsung or HTC will cook up the Focus 2, maybe not, but if they do, that’s a dual core or a 1.5 or 1GB ram whatever phone that’s quite distant from the new minimum Microsoft just agreed to. How’s that going to work out with your stupid video games, between that and no one buying your phones?
What do I care that Motorola made the Backflip? So what HTC made a lower resolution but still decent Aria that Dr. Jim went for because he wanted a smaller phone? If you woke up tomorrow and decided you wanted an LTE handset, what are your options jerkoff? Want, prefer WiMAX? Not even CDMA. The carriers aren’t adopting WP because they knew no one else would other than some fringe bloggers.
While there may be a wide selection of Android hardware, it is not difficult to identity which phone would suit you just right. But Mister 800MHz over here says that’s a bad thing. Just wait for Mango. Yeah you go ahead and wait for Mango and your slower “but GPU optimized” Nokias, meanwhile I’ll keep riding this pony.
When I read the things you write it makes me wish I had a toilet paper-compatible printer.
Make sure you suit up while riding that pony Simmons, you never know who rode it before you. Oh and the GPU is actually an upgraded model and will be optimized. As Apple& Windows Phone have proven, optimization stomps latest and greatest any day of the week. I can’t tell you how many Android users I hear complain about the lag their phones show.
At the end of the day there are factors that make this an apples vs oranges debate. Apple and Microsoft are cheered or blamed for the promotion and marketing of their product but i honestly can’t remember a single Google commercial for Android. Carriers & OEMs? yes. Google? no. But it is what it is and I could care less.
I love my windows phone, will gladly recommend it to everyone I come in contact with and i’m excited to see where the platform goes from here. I’m upgrading every 6 months so no biggie to me. But for those poor guys that price is the deciding factor Nokia’s low/mid end pricing will appeal to them. Now only if we can get a groundswell movement that the KIN had. I’d gladly head that up if it was needed.
I’ll leave the wp7 bandwagon for the android one if you can convince the ignorant masses not to go back to iPhone once they’ve endured their first android mistake. DougS, you have far too much faith in humanity. Wp7 has definitely made the smartphone scene exiting after Apple and mess that is Google.
Jesus Doug, you really do need to go outside and take a deep breath. As for Android, it languished for quite a while before it took off, and it didn’t even enter the market late like Microsoft.
By the way, I like how you didn’t have the guts to respond when I owned you on that pathetic Picasa article. I could own you own this as well, but it’s not even worth trying anymore.
It is worth trying, owning me here, but you’d better hurry up because just as what had happened to the pathetic Picasa article by the time you finally responded to take possession of me, the shelf life of interest on this thread is expiring. If you want to own me and make me become aware of your ownership, kindly own me more expeditiously.
Can I take your word for it that you own me or should I dig up the article so that I can appreciate the finesse with which you owned me?
In defense of your phone’s platform, and in keeping with how you actually talk, just about nobody has managed to own it.
i only read about half the comments but windows phones also support microsoft exchange so windows phone sales are probably bigger than you realize. theres a TON of people using outlook still and the last 3 people ive sold a windows phone to didnt even setup the integrated facebook app on windows phone let alone download the third party app… so i think jimski has a point that the ad data may be more relevant than how many active facebook users there are. but seriously, untill MS releases some figures all this is moot.
sm0k3y: If you were talking about WinMo 6 you’d be right but WP’s Exchange support is no better than the iPhone:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Exchange_ActiveSync_Clients
Microsoft’s explanation:
how many windows phone enterprise users have you spoke with about this? ive set up 2 enterprise accounts in the last month (im at a small store in a rural town, thats alot for enterprise in one month actually) both went windows phone and have not had any worse experience than they have on blackberry or iphone, calendar contact and email sync work flawlessly, most enterprise customers dont even know about half the things you could have done on winmo 6.xx and therefore dont miss/need/want those features. and my point is that not everyone with a windows phone uses facebook even though its integrated into the phone so your facebook user stats are going to be a much worse indicator than say ad impressions or whatever if for no other reason theres no ad blockers for WP yet.
If I recall you said, your first point, that as a result of Windows Phone’s support of Exchange the sales are bigger than I realize. Which was odd because on WinPho websites I recalled reading complaints about its limited support of Exchange so I looked it up and it turns out the Microsoft phone’s Exchange support is on par with the likes of the iPhone. Nothing special. On the other hand, right, most people don’t need more than that, but you used the Enterprise word and Microsoft in contrast used the consumer word when explaining why it lacks what to large businesses may be seen as deal breakers. But maybe you can construct Powerpoints better on it than you can the iPhone. However, when it comes to attaching things, I understand it’s got problems with even that. Exchange support is not a selling point over other phones with exception to the fact that the same company makes both the phone and Exchange so therefore your customers might infer that it’s somehow better at talking to an Exchange server than the competition which is not true but so what, a lot of those people will end up not noticing. Those that do, they’ve got thirty days to stick to their BES and Blackberries, or go with the cloud as Android phone management on Google Apps, in addition to the EAS stuff WinPhones do with any phone compatible with Activesync plus Blackberries, makes for a pretty good package.
Ad impressions are not a great indicator to compare a platform’s success relative to its history and to other phones given that depending on which phone you’re using you’ll be served ads from a different network. Not every Android user uses Facebook either, same with Blackberries, but the difference proportionally can’t be that extreme anymore and even if that were the case, the change in the WP data, the slowing down of sales, holiday events, news events, unless you’re telling me that a crowd of people much more into erroneously believing that the phone will work better with their email server and those people don’t go on facebook… c’mon.
sorry but the only point i made in my first post was that (if you look at the bottom, not the top, the top was just speculation.) untill MS releases figures this is all moot.
and im using an atrix right now. that should tell you how i feel about the current state of windows phones…
and if someone needs to use those missing features of enterprise, they pretty much need a blackberry, because theyre going to be THAT person. (anyone who works customer facing positions knows who THAT person is)
The gap between what you can do as an admin on the cloud, including with Blackberries, versus what you can do with your own BES hooked into your Exchange server, is narrowing, pushed in part by convenience and savings of the cloud and functionality and people and companies are acting accordingly faster and faster.
As for the current state of things and Microsoft’s phones, hey, it’s always Just wait until X/Y/Z hits. If you’re another one of those guys who’s saying this Mango thing will cure cancer, could you give me an ETA on that? Give or take?
I’ve never used an Atrix or any other Motorola phone. I didn’t like Sense, I don’t like locked signed bootloaders (looks like it hasn’t been cracked yet, just sideloading and stuff that can be done with WPs but not things involving flashing unsigned things) and I doubt I’d like Motoblur and TouchWiz. I also find it irritating that Samsung, HTC and Motorola all have to order their softkeys slightly differently. Also it’s AT&T, like most of the Windows Phones that visit the site, which means Edge speeds or worse where I live. And they have not been handed the Nexus name, and endorsement that carries enough weight in my book to nudge me over the edge to another carrier if necessary.
Blackberries are still selling but not like they used to, meanwhile iPhones and Androids sell faster and faster. If these platforms were stocks and I had to pick RIM or WP, as I said over a year ago when it was 30% higher, I’d short Blackberry.
I appreciate that you have a front row perspective to this, this site’s lucky to have a few like you to tell me what time it is, but these are good stats. The man behind it made tabs you can switch to at the bottom to check out more conventional data like ad networks for those who don’t trust his method. Google Docs baby.
No. Firstly, you’ve got plenty of stats from the analysts to the ad networks to this Facebook researcher I keep using and for the most part they’re in allignment.
You’re telling me this is all meaningless to you, data to just shrug off, until you see numbers released by Microsoft? So sm0k3ydaband1t don’t believe shit unless it comes packaged from the source sort of like this. The best educated guesses are moot until the bullshit arrives.
I’ve been hearing “just wait for the numbers from Microsoft” for quite some time, end of last year if I recall. When was the last time they published sales figures on their phone platform? From digging back several years through their quarterly reports I began to think that maybe they’re under no obligation to publish that information, and why would they based on what everything is pointing toward?