PSA: Windows Phone will NOT “fail”
It almost seems as if, every time I turn around there is another “10 reasons I can’t shut the hell up…eerrr…windows phone 7 will fail” article floating around. Seeing as how I have yet to get my hands on a device, and November 8th acts as if it’s 3 years away; these articles were interesting at first.
Existing vicariously through the authors of these articles, I got to see what was wrong! I was made aware of caveats and some inconsistences I never thought would have existed. Things like the obvious copy and paste were a given, but the custom ringtone thing I ever saw coming. So be it! There are some “issues.”
Before I go any further lets lightly touch “issues.” Its amazing how (and understandably so) people approach things when it is not the way they would like, or is accustomed to. It is never different, it is always an issue. So something like not being able to download songs from the Zune Marketplace over 3G is an “issue.” Never mind the ability to stream them, its as if that never existed. Oddly enough, none of the competition even offers the ability to stream, but the step forward is negated to a step backwards as an “issue?” so much for different.
My approach is not to pick apart and defend everyone’s killer issue! David has done a fine job of that already. Instead, I would like to remind everyone that this is Microsoft we’re talking about here. Not the Microsoft of old, but the new and focused Microsoft. What does that mean?
It means Windows Phone is to windows 7 , what windows 7 was to the world. The pressure was on full court press for Windows 7 to deliver. After apple did a fine job at fooling the entire world into believing something was wrong with Vista, it was time for Microsoft to show why and how they are who they are. And boy oh boy did they deliver. By far the best part of Windows 7 was the effect it seemed to have had on the rest of the company. Almost every product to hit production after Windows 7 was done so with great precision and marvelous execution.
And such is Windows Phone. Pick it apart as you see fit, label your differences as issues with little remorse; but the one thing you cannot do, is deny Microsoft nailed it! Right from the get go they hit 80% of their mark. Well done! Not only have they delivered despite the doubtful forecasts, but they built something from the ground up with all the necessities to keep it a viable option for some time to come.
Some key things to understand here. Microsoft is standing behind this product and will continue to do so. Aside from tossing a boat load of money at it, they actually tossed a lot of brilliance to the cause as well. The strong tool set for developers would be one such example. Build it, and they will come!
Second, unlike the competition, Microsoft is already aware of your “issues.” And they’ve got you in mind! Steve Jobs never heard of copy and paste for a striking two years in a row. Took apple how many years to roll it out? nice, well it will take Microsoft months to do that very same task.
And last, windows phone will not “fail.” Success and your definition of it varies depending on which side of the fence you’re standing. Apple and their fruit toy sells some ridiculous amounts a month, so they’re clearly winning. No, not so fast. What about Google and their jack of all trades? Android has surpassed the iPhone in sales, so does that mean they’re winning. Not from where I stand. Each carrier has at least three supported android devices, so it only make sense it sells more. I’ll call it cheating, seeing as how there is only one iPhone and one carrier who carries it. So iPhone is indeed winning. Ummm, not so fast. Then there is good ol’ blackberry tea bagging everyone with $1.99 curves and 2 for 3 deals every other Sunday. My point? Neither one of these companies are failing. To each their own! They’re all still making money and they’re all holding a nice chunk of the pie. Given the diversity in the platforms and their business strategies, Microsoft will fit in nicely between them all. Will it outsell the iPhone? I doubt it. Will it outsell android? Who the hell knows. But it will be known, it will sell and it will be loved!
So what you’ll have when it is all said and done, is a very unique and competitive platform offering from Redmond. And as with many other Microsoft products, even if it does not (lets be real, it won’t…not any time soon at least) dominate the market, it will be alive and well as a strong option (I’m looking at you Bing.) It will NOT fail!
Totally agree with the points here. WP7 will succeed in the same way that iOS and Android are.
One thing, you can download via the marketplace over 3g. A long press on a title gives you the option with a Zune pass.
Maybe, but it’s worth noting that Microsoft had already been dominating the desktop operating system market whereas they have a single digit mobile OS share. Vista, which by most accounts sucked, did not cost them loyal customers as those who heard it sucked stuck with XP and those who didn’t know any better stuck with what was almost forced upon them. They didn’t all go out and buy Macs or install Linux. So by making a decent operating system, 7, they merely opened the doors to the XP masses, mostly, who’ve been under pressure either from stores that only sell computers running whichever OS Microsoft tells them to or by their company’s IT department, worried about losing XP support, and by a few people who liked the advertisements.
Microsoft’s phone history and the reputation it earned is somewhere between nonexistent and laughable. I agree that it won’t fail but it is an additionally uphill battle as a result of that among other stronger factors like the market having somewhat matured in terms of brands — Google, RIM or Apple, and people who own one or more of those will be much more often than not inclined to ignore WP7. It may not fail in terms of it turning out to have not been worth their effort but no matter how fantastic it is it ain’t Windows 7 in terms of rapidly earned popularity.
It’s a bad analogy is basically what I’m trying to say.
how is it supposed to “rapidly earn popularity” when it hasnt even been released to the masses yet? its bad to ass-u-me doug, which is exactly what your doing seeing as hardly anyone has seen one of these puppies in person…
Having waited over a year myself for this device and now owning one, I have to say I wasn’t disappointed, at all.
As for the hate articles spread by obvious iPhone/Android users, all they are achieving is making themselves look stupid.
There is room for everyone and WP7 does appeal to a certain set of users, myself included.
I love my phone, can’t stop playing with it 😉
nocal: you mean Google, right?
cjc: Maybe I’m just worried that if enough people persist in screwing up things like its/it’s and there/their/they’re then whoever is in charge of the language will rule that those are legitimate alternatives, like they did with alright (it’s actually all right, two words — or was I should say).
Not breaking anyone’s balls for splitting infinitives, dangling prepositions and screwing up the subjunctive but come on, it’s? Professional writer — you are certainly in an opposites-attract situation.
All right, let me rephrase: Regardless of how badass it may be, what it won’t be is the blockbuster it is on this website once it’s in the real world. The dent it will make in the market is the kind of dent on your car that you could fix yourself with one of those suction cup vice things.
And by the way, “Apple fooled the world into thinking something was wrong with Vista,”  on that one as from my painful experience with the thing, which consisted largely of making it as XP-like as possible for coworkers and clients who came back from Best Buy with a Vista laptop, it spoke for itself effectively without needing Apple’s help to illustrate how bad it sucked.
To answer your rhetorical questions, no, it will not outsell iOS nor will it outsell Android. Ever. But yes, kind of like with WinMo, some will buy it, knowingly or otherwise, and they’ll fall in love with it with you and David K leading the way to declare victory. But the only victory I’m seeing in the future is you and your people succeeding in waiting, what, a decade to finally get a decent operating system from your captor.
… but I won’t say that it doesn’t stand a chance against RIM over the next few years.
“can’t stop playing with it”? But I thought WP7’s whole mantra was “glance and go”?
By this time next year, Mr. Simmons here will humbly be saying “Well, I guess I stand corrected”
I did back it up, beginning of the year. I got fifty bucks riding on how well it will do next quarter with David K and I’ve been shopping around for a little more action if you’re interested. I don’t need Microsoft to fail, I just need them to win a little less than Google for a few months.
Fun fact: I own stock in Microsoft, Apple and Google.
if thats the case then david will be the first to pressure it out of him, however doug is not that easy to crack haha. I think WP7 will succeed. However, I believe this success will be limited. I have a strong feeling that the smartphone age has matured and most people are comfortable with their current godPhone or whatever they have and have invested money into their devices.. making them less willing to upgrade. I feel like most sales for WP7 will be those who have held strong and resisted the pull of the mighty Apple. I feel like the microsoft community is very large and will be able to provide enough sales to launch WP7 into the top selling devices next to andriod and iphone. I dont think that it will dominate, that job is for the mighty Apple.
I may own Sun and Oracle too.
Hey cjc, comments on a blog by nature entail a good amount of conjecture, debating the unknown or the future. This ain’t wikipedia.
Doug its ok to like Microsoft and Google. You don’t have to let your bias distort your perception of a good product. I would rather be captor to Microsoft who offers a ton of other intertwined products than to Apple’s iTunes or Google’s sketchy app market. You want to talk about being captive, talk to all those people who own devices trapped in an old Android build. “Wow what a cool new app, too bad it won’t work on my phone.” This is supposed to be changing but from all the standpoints of the MS haters the now is all that matters right? Let’s not talk about upcoming future updates or changes. Give me a guarantee that my phone will be viable a year from now or beyond over anything Android offers that MS doesn’t, or won’t.
Unbiased? Look at the poll on the right sidebar. I’m outnumbered by what everywhere else, except WM blogs, is a minority, threefold. I see that as a bias of sorts that I have to clean up by any means necessary.
and yes Doug I know I know it’s it’s…lol ;P I already lost the “forum post/comment doesn’t really need proper grammar or spelling because your typing fast” argument with my wife (professional writer). Maybe I should just get in the habit of typing it is every time. Oh well it is (hehe) fun joining the banter regardless.
I appreciate the concern, but I’ve got thick skin in this department, being disagreed with persistently.
For example: http://mobilitydigest.com/google-maps-to-tea-party-nutjobs-oops/
excuse me for not keeping up to date. taking mental not that domination is now in the hands of andriod.
I’ll ask you what I asked David K who tried to rub my nose in that news — What’s your take on Google’s P/E being double that of Microsoft’s and a quarter higher than Apple’s?
If you have no take I’ll of course provide you with mine.
Woah, they make those?
@ Doug Simmons
Seriously, is it at the point that you NEED Microsoft to fail? You seem to have taken all this almost personally.
“Professional writer — you are certainly in an opposites-attract situation.” LMAO Someone likes Google a little too much. You do realize your judging my writing skills on my comment posts. I got in the habit of leaving out all punctuation when writing fast in forums and posts and texts so it’s a natural consequence. Maybe you should be backing up your ridiculous claims of WP failure (and stop rephrasing to a lessor stance) instead of focusing on commenter post grammar.
Oh and Doug you just beat your record!!!
I forgot the story behind this but I thought it involved a collaboration between two companies, one eventually bought by another, to develop something integral for the other company’s product, then that collaboration ended somewhat abruptly with Google forking the software toward the Dalvik thing while still preserving elements, like what’s in this article’s accompanying image, even though they were possibly entering a legally gray area and because of the whole open source vibe maybe figured it wasn’t a big deal — meanwhile Oracle / Sun sits quietly until Android is a big success when they know, provided this case has significant merit to it (I don’t know), squeeze a hefty settlement out of Google to make this go away and Google does that from time to time, settle.
@D-Money: Like anything new and yes if I am busy with real life, I can glance and go not spend time going from one app to another.
Well at least your portfolio is well distributed! 🙂 seems like you should be pushing for WP to succeed, but I respect the fact your willing to write what you think and back it up. Although I do think your Google love affair gets in the way of an unbiased approach.
alright alright. lets all get along
“Unbiased? Look at the poll on the right sidebar. I’m outnumbered by what everywhere else, except WM blogs, is a minority, threefold. I see that as a bias of sorts that I have to clean up by any means necessary.”
Poor grammar aside (lol lol lol) point well taken, I would be the same given reverse circumstances. I hope you realize I appreciate your posts and hope your slipping into the personal attacks isn’t proof I’m upsetting you.
Doug, sometimes i read articles just to see what you write in response to argumentative comments. Its fun. I think people just know your personality now and just wanna play with you mind a little haha
“Microsoft sees $16.2 billion in Q1 net revenues, 25% increase year-over-year; Doug Simmons uses Google Maps to find bridge to jump off”
see nocal colby.
Now go hug your Android Pillow Pet and enjoy the evening.
Yep. Rumor has it they have a built in Wi-Fi router too.
Windows Phone 7 was never planned to take over the market. It is Microsoft’s attempt to show that they are a viable platform and set the stage for the next great iteration Windows Phone 8. Its that phone that Microsoft will have tied even more in with all their services. Say what you want but when the time comes that Microsoft ties in the phone to the degree they are aiming for there will be not a superior product value on the smartphone market. I acknowledge some will always have their favorite phones but that doesn’t mean they’ll be better.
All right Matt, let me clarify. Once upon a time, nine or ten years ago, they were the second company to produce a smartphone, so I suppose that makes them co-pioneers with Ericsson who started it all in 2000 when they released a touchscreen smartphone running Symbian on the R380. Around that time Handspring (Palm), in 2002, Palm was pumping out full-keyboard touchscreen Treos with web and email and all that good stuff.
Microsoft managed to earn a respectable share of the market though I wouldn’t liken what they did with the smartphone, given what a handful of others were doing, arguably better, at the same time, to GE and the lightbulb, but they got a decent amount of people to buy it.
In 2004 they had a 23% share of worldwide sales. Maybe it was around that time that they began to fall asleep at the wheel, falling to 14% in 2008 (sales). In Q3 2009, people bought 13% more smartphones, meanwhile Microsoft’s platform was suddenly on 20% fewer phones people owned. That quarter was kind of an extra loud death knell for them, not just that they lost so much of the share but that they lost it during a period where other companies, namely Apple I assume, fired up and enticed people to hop aboard their world, securing a lot of loyalty and making a lot of people happy (and a lot of people angry with AT&T but let’s not get sidetracked).
I’ve joked here for a long time that Microsoft would soon become the maker of the mobile platform referred to in charts of this data as Other, a name I jokingly suggested would be more fitting for Windows Phone. I wasn’t completely serious when saying that would happen but I just found this and had a little lol at it:
They had it and they lost it, practically disappeared, and they failed so bad that just like Phillip Morris and perhaps soon BP they are scrapping the name of their brand embarrassment which is smart, no need to have that whole mess dragging you down if you can avoid it a little by pretending it never happened when you stir it up with the thing you decided to work really hard on not only staying awake at the wheel but taking a lot of amphetamines, good ones too.
So what am I missing with the history? What did Microsoft bestow upon us that shaped the mobile world today, other than by not innovating steadily thereby making some room for underdog contenders like Apple whom many had pegged as being too late to the party? Windows Media Player and Office Mobile? Infared beaming technology? The Today screen?
What I still don’t get is how there used to be outrage here that Microsoft was selling out and ditching everything the XDA crowd liked about their phones yet now, after some leaked screen shots, decent PR, hype and youtube clips, most of you are drooling over its release. As complete a 180 as the changes to the phone that set it apart from all the others (well, that and that relatively few people owned them).
@Simmons – Microsoft’s phone history is basically nonexistant and laughable? Are you kidding me? That’s like saying GE’s history of light bulbs is laughable. That is a totally baseless argument. They may be a shadow of their former glory (as is GE) but it is totally wrong to deny what Microsoft did in the world of PDA’s and smartphones. I couldn’t give any less of a shit about what people think about my personal phone (obviously if I own a Fuze) but you’ve got to get your history straight!
For the most part, everyone agrees there is only three options. Andriod( or version of it), IOS and WP7.
If you go with Android, if just like staying with WM6.5, you get the freedom to hack away but the product (software and Hardware) are extremely fragmented. Unless they start standardizes both they are heading down the same path as WM 2.X thru 6.X. (I put the WM2.X in there just for you) They will continue to get the one off sales due to the eye candy but will loose long term as the non technical users ( Non XDA Dev users) frustration builds due the OS and Hardware fragmentation.
IOS, Clean simply and as the say, it works, but they like to keep you locked up in pretty tight. A little too tight for me, any way the OS is getting dated (I love saying that about IOS) and I hate the non replaceable batteries, I really like a bigger screen and keyboards are my friend. I guess I really never liked the form factor. Millions of people do disagree with.
WP7 is somewhere in between. It looks well put together, it’s intuitive; there is a good company behind it. We are going to get boxed in a bit by M$ but I do not think it will be as bad as what is happing with the IOS. There is a good choice of hardware without creating a fragmentation issue. There is a large group of software providers that have been supporting the previous version of the OS, that for the most part will be forced to develop or loose the users they have been supporting since Ipaq WM 3.0 (yes the IPhone name is another Apple rip off). WP7 looks like the logical choice.
Good comment right there. A little too rational and levelheaded but still appreciated.
Sounds like you’ve been around and know a thing or two.
When you refer to this fragmentation that’s plaguing the Android world and turning you off to it, what do you mean specifically? Android 1.6 still floating around, Verizon and Amazon app stores, Sense on this and not on that, screen aspect ratios — is that the gist of it? Any examples to illustrate how Joe Googlephone is affected perniciously by the nature of Android and its pliability? Are you concerned for the developers? What are some real world visions you can create of why one should really reconsider what was an urge to go Android?
Your thoughts on the possibly uniform UI (rumor) of Gingerbread in terms of defragmentation or is the home screen superficial to you? Would you agree that as time passes Google appears to accelerate in their making this fragmentation issue in general less of an issue than it already is? Do you suspect they came up with a few good ideas this time around to combat various things you have in mind?
For the sake of developers in this fragmentation business, and regular users too as what’s good for the developers is good for them ultimately, would you say Google going with both Java and AIR runtime environments is the opposite of letting something become fragmented as it enables a wider array of programmers to write both for Android and also for any other platforms, like RIM’s new one, that supports at least one of those? Are Microsoft and Apple doing anything like that?