I took a few jabs at Microsoft, loyal but misguided reader cjc jabbed back. Rather than posting a retort, figured it would be easier just to post his nonsense as the comment of the week:

Doug you can’t seriously believe MS won’t capture back a good portion of the Mobile market. There are plenty of people who would rather use a platform that is intuitive and new (if not complete yet) over the one-size-fits-all-app-driven-tied-to-iTunes-boring platform. Let’s not even get into the security risks of Android for the business side of things.

MS might initially take market share from RIM (especially with phones like the Dell Venue Pro) but gradually as the WP platform matures and the handsets come out people will realize the benefits of the UI and integration of the social media and MS outlook products not to mention xbox360. WP just made a stab at the youth and will win.

Windows Phone is going to be like Windows 7 for sure. Everyone was saying after Vista how Windows was dead and Apple is going to profit huge. Look how that ended up. MS posting its biggest gains in years and their market share growing yet larger. Apple will continue to succeed as long as they keep pushing out better and better phones and selling them cheap but to say MS will fail is illogical.

We appreciate your contributions cjc, please keep it coming either in comment form or articles if you’re up for it (I need someone to spar against).

Doug Simmons

16 COMMENTS

  1. As tempting as it is to post an article refuting your pretty weak “evidence” leveled against my comment, I think I’ll resist degrading the Mobilitydigest content for the sake of my pride. I’m pretty sure I can state what I need to right here in the comment section where comments belong.

    Before I begin though I gotta hand it to you Doug this post at least has zero chance of offending anyone seeing as it’s directed as one person and I’m pretty hard to offend. Great job on that front at least. I also apologize because my time is limited and this will have to be unpolished and written as quickly as possible. Anyway, where to begin?

    Oh yes Android and business http://www.cio.com.au/article/360355/why_android_bad_business/ (forgive my lack of html skills my apologies for anyone using a WP device :) so that covers open source, now on to Android Apps sending out people’s info. You may have heard about that stink seeing as it was everywhere just a couple weeks ago. I’m not going to link anywhere a simple “WTF why is my identity gone after using (enter any useless app name here) on my droid!” search on google will suffice.

    Android market doesn’t evaluate apps. They rely on the “capabilities” security which has major flaws. Once an app is installed you have zero clue what it’s going to do with the capabilities it’s given. The platform can’t tell if those capabilities are being used for nefarious reasons or not.

    Let’s just say this, I have a lot of friends who would be considered business people (work for a corporation/financial institution/political) not one of them uses an Android handset. Most are blackberries and a few are iPhones (don’t get me started there).

    I can’t believe you even mentioned the Kin. There are so many reasons why that failed that didn’t have to do with Microsoft that I’m not even going to link anywhere. Not to mention, your not even comparing apples to apples. Just because they have facebook in common doesn’t mean they are even remotely similar.

    Microsoft’s current stock prices have nothing to do with what I was referring to Doug. http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2010/apr10/04-22fy10q3earnings.mspx Here it is from the horses mouth. Next time you want to “spar” do some research first and then actually read my comments.

    The bottom line is this. Microsoft has something on their side that Google or even Apple don’t. Diversification. Google is a one shot wonder. They make money on advertisement revenue. Apple makes money on hardware/ niche software (osx etc.) but mostly on hardware.

    Microsoft can afford WP the time it will take to gain market share. They have the leverage and the tools needed to take the breath of fresh air that is WP and make it work for everyone. Young or old, business oriented or not. They can cross promote (xbox360 office etc.) they can prop up where they need to until WP can stand on its own.

    Did you even read the article you linked to using my illogical reference? If not I think it’s pretty ironic.

    1. Fixed with a simple update and promised soon. (ios didn’t fail because of the lackthereof)
    2. What a stupid statement that has nothing to do with why WP will/should fail.
    3. Motorola is alive purely because of Android. The fact that Microsoft is suing them will have nothing to do with the success of WP, again stupid comment.
    4. By this does he mean Motorola isn’t lining up? Who else is there? The big players are at the table. LG,HTC,Dell,Samsung.
    5. Let’s see last time I checked WP is being released around the globe so if he’s referring to the two minorities (sprint,verizon) I’m pretty sure the better market strategy was focusing on 90% of the market.
    6.The closest to being a good point but still misses the mark. RIM got most of the business Microsoft lost in the enterprise world and it won’t be difficult to woo former customers away from them.
    7. Most People haven’t even heard of the Kin let alone remember. What is this guy talking about. I just don’t see how this has an effect on WP. Bad strategy .. yes, death of WP … um no.
    8. Really?!? Um Duh. That’s why they promised it in the next update.
    9. 90% of both Apple’s and Android’s apps are pure worthless crap. All MS needs to do is plug out the important useful ones and as WP gains momentum so will the App creation.
    10. Wow what a exclamation point to finish. WP’s concept is enough to get most interested people in the door. With proper updates and improvements they will stay.

  2. Well! Looks like my work here is done.

    So, any predictions of WP’s US smartphone share by end of June ’11? I’m in a betting mood an am willing to allocate thirty bucks to it. Not sure which way I want to bet, given all this enthusiasm maybe I should hedge against my David K bet. What shall we call the over/under on that? Four percent? Five?

    When you say “capture back a good portion of the mobile market,” cjc, what do you mean exactly (or roughly)? Because if by good you mean “good, relatively speaking” or “good, given their history” that’s one thing, but if you mean >23% US by December ’11 that’s certainly another.

  3. hahah doug you’re quite single-minded with this. i’m actually with cjc on this…i got my first andriod phone last week (hand me down from my brother) and granted its running 2.2 on old hardware (mytouch 3g) and is a bit slow, its not exactly what i was hoping for. the problem with android is that there are no standards for hardware. software fragmentation is something i’m not even going to start with (not os version – everythings converging on 2.1 or 2.2), but the different ui’s are just confusing. the galaxy s is a beautiful phone, but i’m not the biggest fan of its interface.

    microsoft though got it right – simple UI that’s almost foolproof (the only thing i dont like from what ive seen is the app menu list) – and that can handle multitasking without killing your battery. im doubtful it has much of a learning curve (took me a day or two to get used to the mt3g…and im a power user too) as everything is in hubs and easy to access.

    compare it to rim – did you read matt’s article this week about rim users being idiots? yeah – i hate their os too – its just a shit ton of menus…people got blackberries cuz they’re simple to use and they’re good for keeping in contact with others (ie bbm) but when they see hwo easy to use windows phone is, and how its on good hardware, people are definitely going to start moving over.

    when microsoft gets a more mature wp out the door in the coming years, people are going to be stuck between some very hard places with hard decisions to make – the competitions stepping it up, and right now, microsoft’s on their way back up.

    ps microsoft’s diong this now, i’d love to see if nokia’s giong to be in the same boat next year. laugh if you will, they’re finally realizing they need to step it up, and teh n8 is one BEAST of a phone.

    doug, i await your wp and nokia bashing. bring it lol

  4. “microsoft though got it right – simple UI that’s almost foolproof”

    Let me fix that for you:

    “microsoft determined that Apple got it right — and if you can’t beat ’em, copy them”

  5. Personally I think having a healthy competitive market is good for all users. That way people have a choice on what platform and phone works for them. I think MS is taking a huge evolutionary leap with this new OS. I am shure that Android will be taking a leap itself when it comes to version 2. A consitient UI and overall phone standards is good for everyone. Just ask people who are looking at their 1.x Android and wondering why the phone manufacturers let them down like I was while runing Windows Mobile 6.x (and 5.x before it). At some point someone is going to have to let people know what the upgrade path is for each phone. Then if you pick a dead-end phone you can’t complain about the OS not being the newest. With the current offerings it is a crap shoot on how long your device is going to be supported by anyone other than maybe XDA Developers.

  6. When you say “Well! Looks like my work here is done” do you mean “Maybe I should rethink my thought process on the rise or fall of MS because my Android fanboyism is clouding my judgement?”

    In all seriousness though Doug, let me point out that I’m actually a fan of android but I think it’s disadvantages outweigh it’s advantages at this point. I’m hoping that will change with the next android roll out (at least for some of the newer devices out there, I’m sorry I just can’t stop).

    I see Android as crippled by the very thing that makes it great. At some point Google is going to have to reign things in. I don’t ever see phone companies realizing that it’s their responsibility to keep their devices updated. Not at the rate technology is progressing.

    By the time new Android updates roll out they usually have sold pretty close to the max they are going to sell of the now outdated phone. The fact they are trying to make as much money across the board on all their different handsets pretty much assures the Android field will be fragments of current/outdated android builds. Why invest programming time, money and effort into the past when its easier to push and profit from the next new device.

    That and the ridiculous “any app is probably a safe app” mentality. Identity thieves are probably overjoyed so many people treat Android apps as if they are downloading something from Apple or Microsoft etc.

    I digress. “Good portion” simply means at some point MS will be back in competition with the likes of your baby Android and iOS. I didn’t put a time frame because I really don’t think MS is under pressure to flip money on WP right away.

    Much like the xbox they are leveraging themselves into a crowded field and probably expect to lose money off the bat. Eventually the pie charts will even out with Android leading the way and MS pulling second or third with the likes of iOS.

    Android is flawed but like Pandora’s box there is no going back. I say MS claws their way to 15-20% by this time next year. Don’t underestimate MS enterprise connections. The genius behind MS is they know what business’ want and are able to give it to them tailor made. Android will never be able to do that.

  7. Intentional feet dragging on Android updates does not sound like it’s good for anyone’s business, especially not Google’s, and if you’d look at the second chart here of distribution growth you’ll see that somebody’s doing an aggressive job of phasing out the old and ushering in the new quite rapidly. That chart’s almost a month old I should add and the trends seen on it may have been continuing since. Perhaps Android users in general have grown accustomed to knowing that Google has a tendency to figure out and program great stuff really quickly and as a result, maybe more than any other base of smartphone consumers, thirst for the next release. Not just the XDA surfers and Nexus One owners. In other words, perhaps the Android fanboys are the most rabid of them all, perhaps there’s about as much brand allegiance in that crowd as there is in Apple’s give or take.

    With there being quite a plethora of Android phones out there, as a consumer you have some freedom, admittedly not too much if you’re married to AT&T, to dodge Android phones with whatever deficiency you don’t like about it and pick out the one that suits you. That chart suggests that with each new upgrade they’re getting better, or carriers and manufacturers are getting better, and bumping the world up to the latest and greatest release. As for UI fragmentation, Sense or no Sense, Motoblur or whatever, from what I’ve read at least that issue, which I’d submit is a non-issue anyway, may be phased out with the next release, Gingerbread, which I understand is imminent and has all sorts of goodies which I’ll soon be writing about. They’re about to release its SDK you know with people moving on to swapping rumors about the release after that. We’re all excited about our phones, you see — and we actually own them too, probably one within arm’s reach for most of us. We’re not just living on “leaked” youtube video screenshots to know how sweet this thing is.

    Don’t underestimate MS enterprise connections. The genius behind MS is they know what business’ want and are able to give it to them tailor made.

    Their enterprise connections? You mean the one they can’t manage to use to parlay over a 5% share of their current mobile platform with, along the way letting RIM take the throne as the go-to brand for serious businessmen? Even though they’re naming the thing after the first operating system they’ve sold that’s built up a decent reputation in a long time (talking Windows 7) and even though it will have software on it with names like Outlook and Office and the like, just seems to me a day late / dollar short for all of that to matter enough to get your 15-20% by this time next year. Willing to put $30 on that with you at 17.5% or 15% if that makes you uncomfortable or 20% if you want to display some balls.

    Android will never be able to do that.

    Android — you mean the youngest platform that’s been outselling every other mobile platform in the US since August, right? That’s a lot of mindshare blooming, perhaps enough to outweigh all these corporate ties of MS a great deal. They’re already doing it. Maybe if Microsoft didn’t take forever to step their game up and release this thing before the market becomes, for the purposes of breaking into it suddenly, fairly saturated they could have snuffed Android out in the enterprise world before it became this much of a powerhouse, before companies began caving to employee demand to hook up their iphones and Android phones to the company system, which is what has been happening.

    And if by eventually third or second place you mean they’ll edge out RIM with this thing, fughettaboutit.

    Protip: It’s its not it’s for the possessive.

  8. It’s okay I can fix it like I fixed it (twice) in this article because after reading that, I don’t know, kind of feels like Comment of the Week time again.

    As for my writing style, writing like I think is why they pay me the big bucks. While trying to illustrate your point about my writing being awkward or worse, you also, or instead, reiterated some good points that I made. Those sentences aren’t /that/ long.

  9. Doug, there you go again taking my points out of context. When I warned you not to underestimate MS enterprise connections I’m admitting they let the cat jump out of the bag and into RIM’s with WM. I’m cautioning you not to overlook the fact that at one time they had nearly all of the business connections for all the right reasons.

    It’s not going to take the enterprise world long to see the advantages of WP over Android (refer back to Android being bad for business, security risks etc.). All the reason’s are still there (or will be soon). The difference now, is they are wrapped up in a solid user friendly intuitive design.

    Eventually people are going to be flocking to the WP platform because of the ingenuity. Android basically copied the hell out of iOS. Admittedly making it better, but basically relying on the same old app centric stale platform. At least WP is an entirely new concept. Soon the corporations will be hearing their employees clamoring for WP.

    I’m not arguing against the fact Android will always own more market share than MS in the mobile phone arena. That’s nearly a given seeing as it’s given away free. I’m arguing the fact it’s bad for business for the very reason it’s given away free. Security and tools are the staples of MS.

    There is a very real chance Android will fall flat on its definition of open as well. Open means transparent coding. Group building and zero limitations to the user. Android is not that. It’s built in private and updated like iOS or any other platform allowing the user zero input in it’s core features until after the fact. Carriers are allowed to put whatever limitations on the platform they want and change whatever they want to benefit themselves, not the users.

    This may be great for Google to keep the platform viable but it’s been terrible for the users traditionally because Android is built on the app centric principle. What a nightmare for devs.

    We could probably go back and forth all day on these issues. The important thing is hopefully Google is making the right changes to keep Android viable for a long time to come. Choices are good for the user and some choices better. I’d take Android any day over iOS or Symbian or RIM.

    As far as the betting goes. I don’t want your money nor do I want to support your obvious bias … haha. There is a pretty decent chance I’m wrong about percentages in the short term but there is 0 chance in the long. MS WP will succeed for sure.

    P.S. Thanks for the tip (literally, when I write fast I tend to fall back into bad habits). Every good deed deserves another. Here’s one for you. You write like you talk (another one of my own bad habits) and therefor under use your period button and over use your comma. This often makes your sentences awkward at best.

    E.G.

    “As for UI fragmentation, Sense or no Sense, Motoblur or whatever, from what I’ve read at least that issue, which I’d submit is a non-issue anyway, may be phased out with the next release, Gingerbread, which I understand is imminent and has all sorts of goodies which I’ll soon be writing about. ”

    “Intentional feet dragging on Android updates does not sound like it’s good for anyone’s business, especially not Google’s, and if you’d look at the second chart here of distribution growth you’ll see that somebody’s doing an aggressive job of phasing out the old and ushering in the new quite rapidly.”

    “Even though they’re naming the thing after the first operating system they’ve sold that’s built up a decent reputation in a long time (talking Windows 7) and even though it will have software on it with names like Outlook and Office and the like, just seems to me a day late / dollar short for all of that to matter enough to get your 15-20% by this time next year.”

  10. Doug you have, no joke, 7 commas in the first sentence. Your points are actually ok (although XP had a pretty good rep.), the problem lies in how complex your sentences become after you reach your comma quota.

    “Even though they’re naming the thing after the first operating system they’ve sold that’s built up a decent reputation in a long time (talking Windows 7) and even though it will have software on it with names like Outlook and Office and the like, just seems to me a day late / dollar short for all of that to matter enough to get your 15-20% by this time next year.”

    It seems to me MS is a day late and a dollar short to ever reach 15%-20% market share by this time next year. And that’s despite naming it after the one operating system they’ve sold that actually built up a decent reputation (talking windows 7). Not even software with Outlook or Office stamped on the front can help WP make that mark.

    See how much better that flowed? 3 sentences with less words. I actually am inclined to agree with my version. haha By the way, keep posting my comments as comments of the week because last time I checked the people commenting are agreeing with me. With or without my poor grammar. :)

  11. Good point Mike, I am in no way insulting Doug or his grammar, (“it’s” is a testament to that). I honestly enjoy what he has to offer and his points are usually pretty good. I’m merely saying I think his posts would benefit from shorter sentences on average. A lot of his points are lost to the fray of commas. I hope I’m not coming across as disingenuous when I say I really do appreciate him calling me out on it’s. I probably do that more than I know and now I will be more aware of it. Doug you can obviously take my tip or leave it. I just recall being called out on the same exact thing multiple times by different professional writer friends and took note. At any rate I must say, Doug that review of yours with the tape was pretty darn funny. I just watched that after noticing it was you and I was cracking up.

  12. Hey, I appreciate your empathy, but I am aware of how many words I’ve been typing since I hit the period button and, particularly given that, and I got one guy backing me up on this, they’re technically not run-on sentences and also that both the individual sentences and the entire piece tend to be relatively coherent, while I may write like I think, for those here who think like they read, the point gets delivered.

    To introduce a filter into this thought-to-keyboard writing method, though it may make it a little more neat and tidy for the likes of cjc, is to neuter the writing. You’ve clearly got the hang of it which is largely why I’ve high fived you a handful of times on the latest thing you wrote. I don’t hand out high fives.

    In my defense, I am pretty good with busting out a new paragraph at the right time to ease things up on the readers’ eyes. That’s what I did on this article with his comment. Fixed it’s/its twice and chopped it up into three paragraphs. Figured he wouldn’t mind.

    As for Microsoft and percentages by certain dates, I was simply looking for some action from anyone for thirty bucks, trying to get a consensus on the right over under.

  13. @Simmons – I too am cursed with a strong authorial voice for which I am often denigrated. Distinct and noticeable voice are difficult to find in writer who can still create compelling arguments and proper sentence structure. It’s not like people are ever going to confuse one of my posts for you or anyone else for that matter, despite our inclination torwards provocative prose. Brevity was not a blessing instilled on either of us, hence our ridiculous affinity for lengthy and complex sentence structure. Its sort of a literary paradigm more so than an attempt to go against the grain of traditional sentence construction. As for your comments on the economic viability of WP7, I presume your estimates of Microsoft’s market share may be true but as cjc mentions, Microsoft plays longer term than one quarter from launch. This company just spent billions (as plural as that word can be) getting the OS out the door and into consumers hands. They aren’t going to simply quit if they don’t hit 20% share by first quarter next year. Even if the argument makes sense it’s still a stupid argument to make.

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